基于绝对主成分-多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)模型的浙江长潭水库污染源解析

Pollution Source Apportionment of Changtan Reservoir of Zhejiang Province Based on APCS-MLR Model

基于2010—2020年长潭水库水质监测数据,采用主成分分析与因子分析法识别长潭水库的主要污染源,运用绝对主成分-多元线性回归(APCS-MLR)模型解析不同污染源及其对库区主要污染因子的贡献率。结果显示,长潭水库的水体污染物主要来自内生源、生活源和农业面源3个方面。其中有机污染物和叶绿素a(Chl-a)主要来自内生源,内生源对COD_(Mn)、COD_(Cr)、BOD_(5)和Chl-a的贡献率分别为75.52%、51.39%、67.00%和63.65%;氮主要来自生活源,生活源对NH_(4)^(+)-N、NO_(3)^(-)-N和TN的贡献率分别为38.54%、46.80%和77.69%;磷主要来自农业面源,农业面源对TP的贡献率为44.51%。长潭水库TN和TP浓度偏高且主要来自外源输入,如果缺乏有效控制,库区未来将面临水体富营养化的风险,在制定污染控制方案的过程中应当重点关注生活源和农业面源。

Based on the water quality monitoring data of Changtan Reservoir between 2010-2020,principal component analysis and factor analysis were used to determine the primary pollution sources of Changtan Reservoir.Contributions of different pollution sources to each pollution factor of Changtan Reservoir were quantified by APCS-MLR(absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression)model.Research results show that the primary pollution sources of Changtan Reservoir are endogenous pollution source,domestic pollution source and agricultural none point source.Organic pollutants and Chl-a(chlorophyll a)of Changtan Reservoir are mainly from endogenous pollution source.The endogenous pollution source contribute 75.52% of COD_(Mn),51.39% of COD_(Cr),67.00% of BOD_(5) and 63.65% of Chl-a.Nitrogen mainly comes from domestic pollution source.The domestic pollution source contribute 38.54% of NH_(4)^(+)-N,46.80% of NO_(3)^(-)-N and 77.69% of TN.Phosphorus is mainly from agricultural none point source which contributed 44.51% of phosphorus.The concentrations of TN and TP are relatively higher in Changtan Reservoir and they are mainly from external pollution sources.Lack of effective control of nitrogen and phosphorus from the pollution sources will put Changtan Reservoir at the risk of eutrophication.In the process of formulating the pollution control scheme of Changtan Reservoir,more attention should be paid on the domestic pollution source and the agricultural none point source.