基于模糊综合评价的水资源承载力研究

Study on Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

水是制约经济社会发展的关键因素,为解决好供需水矛盾,实现水资源的优化配置,必须系统掌握好地区水资源承载力。为解决这一问题,以河北省某市为例,在系统分析水资源承载力影响因素的基础上,从水资源禀赋条件、水资源开发利用程度、供水能力、水环境状况、经济社会发展水平5个层面建立了由22项二级指标构成的水资源承载力评价体系,改进的模糊层次分析法用于确定各级指标权重,对该市水资源承载力进行了多级模糊评价。实例分析结果表明,该市水资源承载力综合评价等级为中等,其中水资源开发利用程度评价等级为较好,水资源禀赋条件、供水能力、水环境状况、经济社会发展水平评价等级为中等,研究成果符合该市现阶段的水资源开发利用实际情况,对于该市优化水资源管理工作具有一定的参考意义。

Water is the key to restrict economic and social development.In order to solve the contradiction between water supply and consumption and realize the optimal allocation of water resources,it is a prerequisite to systematically master the regional water resources carrying capacity.In order to solve this problem,taking a city in Hebei Province as an example,based on the systematic analysis of the influencing factors of water resources carrying capacity,this paper has established an evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity composed of 22 secondary indicators from the five aspects of water resources endowment conditions,water resources development and utilization degree,water supply capacity,water environment conditions and economic and social development level.The improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the weights of indicators at all levels.The multi-level fuzzy evaluation on water resources carrying capacity of the city is carried out.The results of case analysis show that the comprehensive evaluation grade of water resources carrying capacity of the city is medium,among which the evaluation grade of water resources development and utilization degree is good,and the evaluation grade of water resources endowment conditions,water supply capacity,water environment status and economic and social development level is medium.The research results are in line with the actual situation of water resources development and utilization of the city at the present stage,and have certain reference significance for the optimization of water resources management of the city.