2016—2020年南昌市大气PM_(2.5)短期暴露对人群循环系统疾病超额死亡的风险评估

Risk assessment of circulatory disease excess mortality due to short-term atmospheric PM_(2.5) exposure in Nanchang,China,2016—2020

目的评估南昌市大气PM_(2.5)短期暴露所致人群循环系统疾病超额死亡的风险。方法收集2016—2020年南昌市大气污染物、气象及死因监测资料,采用Poisson分布的广义相加模型分析PM_(2.5)短期暴露对人群循环系统超额死亡的影响。结果2016—2020年,南昌市PM_(2.5)年均浓度为37.68μg/m^(3),循环系统疾病总死亡50664人。PM_(2.5)短期暴露所致全人群循环系统疾病超额死亡707人,占循环系统疾病死亡人数的1.40%,PM_(2.5)每升高10μg/m^(3),男性、女性和≥64岁人群超额死亡危险度分别升高1.11%(95%CI:0.30%,1.92%)、1.64%(95%CI:0.79%,2.49%)和1.36%(95%CI:0.66%,2.07%)。结论南昌市大气PM_(2.5)浓度升高会增加男性、女性和65岁及以上人群循环系统疾病的超额死亡风险。

Objective To investigate the risk of circulatory disease excess mortality due to short-term atmospheric PM_(2.5) exposure in Nanchang,China,from 2016 to 2020.Methods The data of air pollutants,meteorological factors and cause-of-death in Nanchang from 2016 to 2020 were collected.The generalized additive model of Poisson distribution was performed to analyze the influence of PM_(2.5) on excess mortality due to circulatory diseases.Results During 2016—2020,the mean annual mass concentration of PM_(2.5) in Nanchang was 37.68μg/m^(3),and there were 50664 deaths in total due to circulatory diseases.There were 707 circulatory disease excess deaths caused by short-term PM_(2.5) pollution in the whole population,accounting for 1.40%of total circulatory disease deaths,and for every 10μg/m^(3) increase of PM_(2.5) mass concentration,the risk of excess mortality for those of male,female and aged≥65 years was increased by 1.31%[95%confidence interval(CI):0.64%,1.99%],1.11%(95%CI:0.30%,1.92%),1.64%(95%CI:0.79%,2.49%),and 1.36%(95%CI:0.66%,2.07%),respectively.Conclusion The increase of mass concentration of PM_(2.5) in Nanchang may increase the risk of circulatory disease mortality in the population of male,female and aged≥65 years,leading to the circulatory diseases excess deaths due to PM_(2.5) pollution.