贸易去中心化对港口供应链的冲击效应

Impacts of Trade Decentralization on the Port Supply Chain

作为贸易格局调整的结果,去中心化趋势对港口物流及相关行业造成了系统性的冲击。受中美博弈以及新冠疫情的影响,国际分工秩序遭到严重挑战,生产与贸易逐步收缩,去中心化、区域化、碎片化的趋势已愈加明显。通过建立包含陆运、港口、航运的三方博弈模型,以货源分流的形式对贸易去中心化的影响进行模拟。理论分析的结果显示:贸易去中心化对不同供应链节点企业的影响存在差异,对陆运部门价格的影响取决于贸易去中心化对货源分流的程度;主线港口装卸价格下降的幅度与港口拥挤系数和供应链中收益占比正相关;对主航线货物的运输价格具有抑制作用,但船公司在主航线上运力部署的增加将弱化这一影响。

As a result of the adjustment of international trade pattern,the trend of decentralization has caused a systematic impact on port logistics.Under the impact of China-US competition and the COVID-19 pandemic,the international labor division order has been seriously challenged,production and trade have gradually shrunk,and the trend of decentralization,regionalization and fragmentation has become increasingly obvious.By establishing a tripartite game model including land transportation,ports and shipping,impact of trade decentralization is simulated.The results of theoretical analysis show:there were different impacts of trade decentralization on each inter-enterprises of supply chain,and the impact on the price of land transport sector depended on the degree of trade decentralization on the diversion of goods;the extent of the decline in the handling price of the main port was positively related to the port congestion coefficient and the proportion of revenue in the supply chain;it had an inhibitory effect on the transport price of goods on the main route,but the increase in the capacity deployment of shipping companies on the main route would weaken this effect.