数字经济发展对黄河流域生态韧性的影响效应研究

Study on the Impact of Digital Economy Development on the Ecological Resilience of the Yellow River Basin

近年来,沿黄各城市在快速扩张中普遍面临水资源短缺、水土流失、土壤植被破坏、空气质量下降等问题,生态韧性趋弱。借助数字经济发展机遇以提升沿黄城市的生态韧性,是推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的重要途径。从生态系统抵抗力、适应力、恢复力三方面构建指标体系,研究2006-2017年沿黄46个城市的生态韧性演变特征,运用面板模型、时空地理加权模型分析表明:样本期内沿黄城市生态韧性总体呈波动上升趋势,下游>中游>上游,下游城市的生态适应力、恢复力较高,但是生态抵抗力低于中上游;生态韧性大小在空间分布上呈“低-低”或“高-高”韧性区集聚特征,以省会城市为高韧性区向周边递减;数字经济发展能显著提升沿黄城市的生态适应力和恢复力,但对抵抗力有抑制作用,各因素影响生态韧性的作用强度和方向存在异质性。基于此,实现黄河流域城市高质量发展,首先,要完善信息技术基础设施建设,推动数字经济快速发展。通过实施数字技术向制造业、能源化工业赋能渗透,提高产业资源利用效率,推广数字技术在环境监测中的应用。其次,要加强省会城市对周围城市的带动,严防生态韧性风险连锁反应。三是沿黄城市尤其是中上游城市在吸引外商投资时要警惕产业“污染转移”问题,限制严重损害城市生态韧性的企业。四是沿黄城市只有加快高质量发展才能真正获得保障生态韧性的底蕴和底气。

In recent years,with the rapid expansion of cities along the Yellow River,these ciities are faced with common problems such as water shortage,soil erosion,vegetation destruction,declining air quality,and increasingly reduced ecological resilience.It is an important way to promote ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin by taking advantage of the development opportunities of digital economy to enhance the ecological resilience of cities along the Yellow River.This paper uses an index system composed of three aspects,namely,ecosystem resistance,adaptability,and resilience,and studies the evolution characteristics of ecological resilience of 46 cities along the Yellow River from 2006 to 2017.Through the panel model,and the geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR),the analysis shows that the ecological resilience of cities along the Yellow River demonstrates an overally fluctuating upward trend during this study period,with downstream cities ranking first,followed by cities in middle reaches and upstream cities;downstream cities shows good ecological adaptability and resilience,but weaker ecological resistance that of middle and upper reaches cities;The spatial distribution of ecological resilience shows the agglomeration characteristics of'low-low'or'high-high',with the provincial capital as the high resilience area and the surrounding areas decreasingly jogj resilient;the development of digital economy can significantly improve the ecological adaptability and resilience of cities along the Yellow River,but it has an inhibitory effect on resistance,and the intensity and direction of various factors affecting ecological resilience are heterogeneous.Based on these findings,in order to achieve high-quality development of cities in the Yellow River basin,the cities,first of all,must improve the construction of information technology infrastructure and promote the rapid development of the digital economy.Through the empowering the manufacturing,energy and chemical industries with the digital technology,improve the efficiency of utilizing industrial resource,and promote the application of digital technology in environmental monitoring.Secondly,it is necessary to better coordinate between provincial capital cities and their surrounding cities so as to avoid the chain reaction occured in risks related to ecological resilience.Thirdly,cities along the Yellow River,especially those in the middle and upper reaches,should be alert to'pollution transfer'in attracting foreign investment,and forbid the entry of enterprises that seriously damage urban ecological resilience.Fourthly,only by accelerating highquality development can cities along the Yellow River truly sustain and ensure ecological resilience.