中国奶牛周期的初步探索

The Proposition and Research of the Chinese Dairy Cow Cycle

本文对改革开放后我国生鲜乳价格、奶牛扩群和生鲜乳产量增速变化特点进行分析,提出奶牛养殖业存在类似典型畜牧业周期的“中国奶牛周期”,跨度长达8~9年,每个周期可分为“景气”+“调整”两阶段。牛奶消费增速不均衡、从业者非理性和奶牛繁殖长周期共同导致的生鲜乳供需错配,可能是中国奶牛周期产生的深层原因。通过4轮周期更替,当前我国奶牛养殖业在产业素质、一体化程度和产业成熟度方面均呈现积极变化。中国奶牛周期的探索对奶牛养殖业经营管理有积极参考意义。

By analyzing the fluctuation of raw milk price,imported breeding cattle and the growth rate of raw milk production of Chinese dairy farming industry after 1980,this paper proposed that the existence of the Chinese dairy cow cycle similar to typical husbandry cycles.The Chinese dairy cow cycle has a cycle length of 8 to 9 years,which can be further divided into two stages:prosperity and depression.The mismatch between the supply and demand of raw milk caused by the unbalanced growth rate of consumption,the irrationality of practitioners,and the longer cycle of dairy cow reproduction may be the deep cause for the cycle.Through replacement of four round cycles,positive changes have taken place today in the industrial quality,integration of farming and processing and modernization for Chinese dairy industry.The proposal and research of Chinese dairy cow cycle have positive function to industry management and enterprise operation.