信息通信技术货物出口、政府贸易安排与服务贸易出口的相关性研究——来自44个贸易伙伴的证据

The Relevance of ICT Goods Exports,Government Trade Arrangements and Service Trade Exports——Evidence from 44 Trading Partners

基于2012-2021年中国与44个主要贸易伙伴的经济宏观数据、中国手机厂商市场份额、中国对其承包工程营业额和对外合同派出人数等组成的面板数据,运用贸易引力模型并采用伪泊松最大似然估计(PPML)等方法实证我国服务贸易输出与信息通信货物出口存在很强的相关性,“一带一路”倡议和区域性自贸协定等多种政府间贸易安排也对服务贸易出口有着重要推动作用。因此信息通信技术的产品出口与政府推动相结合可以促成与贸易伙伴更高水平的服务贸易联系,实现贸易高水平发展从而落实“双循环”发展战略。

Based on the panel data composed of the economic macro data of China and 44 major trading partners from 2012 to 2021,the market share of Chinese mobile phone manufacturers,the turnover of China's contracted projects and the number of people dispatched to foreign contracts,the paper uses the trade gravity model and Pseudo Poisson maximum likelihood estimation(PPML)and other methods to demonstrate that there is a strong correlation between China's service trade output and the export of information and communication goods,Various intergovernmental trade arrangements such as the"the Belt and Road"initiative and regional free trade agreements(FTA)also play an important role in promoting service trade exports.Therefore,the combination of ICT product export and government promotion can promote a higher level of service trade links with trading partners and implement the“dual circulation”strategy.