新产品产能规划视角下柔性策略选择研究

Research on Flexible Strategy Selection From the Perspective of New Product Capacity Planning

现有研究对需求不确定下柔性策略与无柔性策略之间的选择问题投以了大量关注,但缺乏关注不同柔性策略之间的选择决策。本文从新产品产能规划视角,研究了产量柔性与时间柔性策略选择问题。研究表明,需求不确定性较大时,制造商会选择时间柔性策略;需求不确定性中等时,制造商会选择产量柔性策略;需求不确定性较小时,制造商会选择无柔性策略。产量柔性策略调节产量的难度越大,最优产能规模越大;如果预测的单位时间市场容量均值大于单位时间实际市场容量,销售爆发期单位时间最优产量也越大,反之则越小。

Existing research has paid a lot of attention to the choice between flexible strategies and inflexible strategies under demand uncertainty,but lacks of attention to the choice decision between different flexible strategies.From the perspective of new product capacity planning,this paper studies the choice of yield flexibility and time flexibility strategies.The research shows that when the demand uncertainty is large,the manufacturer will choose time flexible strategy,when the demand uncertainty is moderate,the manufacturer will choose yield flexible strategy,and when the demand uncertainty is small,the manufacturer will choose inflexible strategy.The more difficult it is to adjust output with yield flexible strategy,the larger the optimal production capacity scale;if the average value of the market capacity per unit time is greater than the actual market capacity per unit time,the optimal output per unit time during the sales outbreak period is also larger,and vice versa.