企业年金基金收入对国民储蓄的影响研究

Empirical Research on Annuity’s Effects on Domestic Saving

企业年金制度不仅是我国养老金制度的重要组成部分,也是一项企业福利制度。发展企业年金制度不仅可以创造国民储蓄,还可以带动就业和促进经济增长。为深入研究发展企业年金制度对国民储蓄的影响,首先,文章通过构建反映企业年金基金收入与国民储蓄之间关系的经济模型,从实证角度对二者之间的关系做了深入分析,实证研究结果显示,企业年金基金收入与国民储蓄之间存在协整关系。其次,采用自回归分布滞后模型检验变量之间短期和长期关系,还采用完全调整后的最小二乘回归估计法,动态普通最小二乘回归估计法和马尔科夫切换回归法检验模型的稳健性。最后,研究结果表明,发展企业年金制度有助于增加国民储蓄,促进经济增长。

Annuity system is not only an important part of China’s pension system,but also a part of corporate welfare system.The annuity system can lift domestic savings,as well as drive employment and promote economic development.In order to further study the effect of annuity fund income on savings,the paper makes an in-depth analysis from an empirical perspective,the results of which show that there is a co-integration relationship between annuity fund income and savings.Moreover,the paper uses auto-regressive distributed lag model test both short-term and long-term relationship among variables,and uses fully adjusted least-squares regression estimation method,the dynamic ordinary least squares regression estimation method and Markov switching regression to test robustness of the model.The results show that the development of annuity system helps to increase domestic savings and promote economic growth.