沁蟒河流域(河南段)水生态承载力评价

Water ecological carrying capacity evaluation of Qinmang River Basin(Henan Section)

为有效保护沁蟒河流域水生态环境,确定其水生态承载力迫在眉睫。采用驱动力-压力-抵抗力-状态-响应(driving-force pressure resistance state response, DPRSR)模型对2008—2018年间沁蟒河流域(河南段)水生态承载力进行了分析评价;之后采用Vensim软件构建与系统动力学模型相融合的水生态承载力系统动力学(system dynamics, SD)模型对沁蟒河流域(河南段)未来不同发展模式下(常规发展模式、综合发展模式、生态优先发展模拟)的水生态承载力进行了预测分析。分析结果表明:2008—2018年沁蟒河流域(河南段)水生态承载力处于临界偏好状态;综合发展模式下的水生态承载力分值处于临界可承载范围内,可兼顾流域生态保护和社会经济发展,推荐综合发展模式作为沁蟒河流域(河南段)水生态与经济社会可持续健康发展的最优方案。研究成果对区域水生态环境保护和社会发展战略制定具有一定的参考价值。

The identification of water carrying capacity in Qinmang River Basin(Henan Section)is imminent in order to protect the water ecological environment.The Driving-force Pressure Resistance State Response(DPRSR)model was adopted to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity of Qinmang River Basin(Henan Section)from 2008 to 2018.Then the Vensim software was used to build a System Dynamics(SD)model to predict and analyze the water ecological carrying capacity in the future under different development modes(conventional development mode,comprehensive development mode and ecological priority development mode).The results show that the overall water ecological carrying capacity of Qinmang River Basin(Henan section)from 2008 to 2018 is critical preference.Under the comprehensive development model,the water ecological carrying capacity is within the bearable range,which is recommended as the optimal plan for the sustainable and healthy development of the water ecology and economic society of Qinmang River Basin.The results provides beneficial references for regional water ecological environment protection and social development strategy formulation.