云南省城市营运柴油货车碳排放测度及空间分异特征

Carbon Emission Measurement and Spatial Differentiation Characteristics of Urban Operating Diesel Trucks in Yunnan Province

为测算城市营运柴油货车碳排放,获取营运柴油货车碳排放空间分异特征及其影响因素,以云南省各城市营运柴油货车碳排放为研究对象,采用自上而下的交通运输碳排放方法测算出云南省营运柴油货车碳排放总量,利用空间自相关和K均值聚类算法分析了各城市营运柴油货车碳排放的总体变化、区域差异、时空格局和聚类特性。基于LMDI方法对营运柴油货车碳排放影响因素进行分解,最终得出各影响因素对营运柴油货车碳排放影响效应的大小。结果表明:2016-2020年云南省各城市营运柴油货车碳排放总量呈现出先降后升的发展趋势,且形成了东高西低的排放格局;云南省各城市营运柴油货车碳排放在空间上存在明显的聚集特性,存在高值聚集和低值聚集,高值聚集一直分布于滇中城市群;低值聚集主要分布在云南省中西部地区,并逐渐向西部延伸;交通能源强度、单位周转能耗和交通运输强度对营运柴油货车碳排放起抑制作用;人均GDP和人口因素对营运柴油货车碳排放起促进作用。因此,转变经济发展方式,调节当前运输结构,充分挖掘运输资源潜能,根据各城市交通发展制订针对性的减排政策,有利于降低营运柴油货车碳排放总量。

In order to measure the carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks in cities and obtain the spatial differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of the carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks,taking the carbon emissions of the operating diesel trucks in Yunnan Province as the research object,the total carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks in Yunnan Province is calculated by adopting the top-down transport carbon emission method,the overall changes,regional differences,temporal and spatial patterns and clustering characteristics of the carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks in various cities in the province are analyzed by using spatial autocorrelation and K-means clustering algorithm.The factors affecting the carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks are decomposed based on the LMDI method,and the effect of each influencing factor on the carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks is obtained at last.The result shows that(1)from 2016 to 2020,the total carbon emissions of the urban operating diesel trucks in Yunnan Province shows a development trend of first decreasing and then increasing,and forms a pattern of high emissions in the east and low emissions in the west;(2)the carbon emissions from the urban operating diesel trucks in Yunnan Province have obvious spatial aggregation characteristics,including high-value aggregation and low-value aggregation,and high-value aggregation is distributed in the urban agglomeration in central Yunnan;(3)the low-value aggregation is mainly distributed in the central and western regions of Yunnan Province,and gradually extends to the west;(4)transport energy intensity,unit turnover energy consumption and transport intensity inhibit the carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks;(5)GDP per capita and population factor play the role in promoting the carbon emissions of operating diesel trucks.Therefore,changing the mode of economic development,adjusting the current transport structure,fully tapping the potential of transport resources,and formulating targeted emission reduction policies according to the transport development of each city will help reduce the total carbon emissions of diesel trucks.