考虑动态潜计划的巡游停车行为分析

Analysis on Cruising-for-parking Behavior Considering Dynamic Latent Scheme

为了定量分析驾驶员在停车巡游过程中的微观动态行为决策的内在机理,从动态潜计划理论角度构建了双层结构(停车场选择(计划的选择)和巡游路线选择(基于计划的行动选择))的停车巡游行为分析框架。依托行为决策框架分析了巡游行为的影响因素,并建立了基于动态潜计划的停车巡游行为模型。通过停车行为问卷调查所获数据进行了模型参数标定与检验,并与一般MNL模型作了比较分析,研究了各影响因素在停车巡游动态决策过程中的作用联系。结果表明:依据动态潜计划考虑的影响因素(过去计划、过去行动和当前计划)对停车巡游行为具有显著性影响,对于不同的停车计划,巡游路线的选择行为存在较大的差异性;直接影响计划选择的显著性因素为性别、职业、车辆属性、停车费用、停车时间、便捷程度、停车后步行距离、过去计划、过去行动,直接影响巡游路线选择的显著性因素为性别、驾龄、职业、当前计划、道路环境、车辆属性和信息获取方式;过去计划、过去行动的负面经历最终会影响下一阶段计划和行动的选择;超出忍受的停车后步行距离和停车排队时间,以及巡游路线道路等级、环境美观程度是使驾驶员由路外停车转变为路内停车的显著性影响因素;该模型具有较好的精度和拟合效果,在揭示停车巡游行为动态变化规律上具有较强的解释能力。

In order to quantitatively analyze the internal mechanism of the micro dynamic behavior decision of the driver during cruising for parking,From the perspective of dynamic potential planning theory,a 2-layer structure(parking lot selection(scheme selection)and cruise route selection(scheme based action selection))cruising-for-parking behavior analysis framework is constructed from the perspective of dynamic latent scheme.Relying on the decision framework,the influencing factors of cruise behavior are analyzed,and a cruising-for-parking behavior model based on dynamic latent scheme is established.The model parameters are calibrated and tested through the data obtained from the parking behavior questionnaire survey,and compared with the general MNL model.The role of various influencing factors in the dynamic decision-making process of parking parade is studied.The role of different influencing factors in the dynamic decision-making process of cruising for parking is studied.The result shows that(1)The considered influencing factors(past scheme,past action and current scheme)according to the dynamic latent scheme have significant influence on the cruising-for-parking behavior.For different parking scheme,the cruise route selection behaviors are quite different.(2)The significant factors that directly affect the scheme selection are gender,occupation,vehicle attributes,parking cost,parking time,convenience,walking distance after parking,past schemes,past actions.The significant factors that directly affect the cruising route selection are gender,driving age,occupation,current scheme,road environment,vehicle attributes and information acquisition methods.(3)The negative experiences of past schemes and actions will eventually affect the choice of schemes and actions in the next stage.(4)The unbearable walking distance and queuing time after parking,the road grade of the cruising route and the aesthetic degree of the environment are significant influencing factors for drivers to change from off-street parking to on-street parking.(5)The model has good precision and fitting effect,and has strong explanatory ability in revealing the dynamic change rule of cruising-for-parking behavior.