碳达峰目标下的汽车电动化碳减排效果研究

Study on Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Automotive Electrification under Goal of Carbon Peaking

围绕2030年碳达峰目标,建立了全生命周期下的汽车电动化碳排放测算模型,测算了2021—2035年我国汽车全生命周期的碳排放总量,研究了发电端能源结构、纯电动汽车的综合性能及其投放策略等因素对汽车电动化背景下的碳排放总量水平的影响。结果表明:随着汽车电动化水平的提升,汽车碳排放总量在2031年达到峰值15.53亿t;此后由于纯电动汽车生产阶段车辆数稳定,行驶阶段车辆规模将不断扩大,发展至2035年时碳排放总量较峰值下降幅度为3.53%;因汽车电动化发展带来的碳减排效果有所体现,发电端能源结构中火电占比下降1%和2%时,汽车碳排放总量峰值较基准情景峰值分别下降0.64%和1.16%,达峰时间提前至2029年;纯电动汽车的百公里电耗水平在2035年降至11.0,9.0 kW·h/(100 km)时,碳排放量峰值均较基准情景有所下降且提前至2029年,2035年的碳排放总量相较于各自的峰值分别下降5.19%和6.47%;如进一步加大电动汽车投放力度,若新增纯电动汽车占比恒为40%,短期内由于生产阶段碳排放量偏高,汽车碳排放总量将高于基准情景0.11~0.31亿t,之后因处于行驶阶段的纯电动汽车数量规模化带来的碳减排效应放大,达峰时间提前至2027年,这意味着降低发电端能源结构中火电占比、提高纯电动汽车综合性能、合理制订纯电动汽车投放策略,将助力汽车的碳减排。

Based on the goal of carbon peaking in 2030,the carbon emission calculation model of automotive electrification in entire life cycle is established.The total carbon emissions of China’s automobiles in entire life cycle from 2021 to 2035 are calculated.The influences of the factors such as the energy structure at the power generation end,the comprehensive performance of battery electric vehicles and the launch strategies on the total carbon emissions under the background of automotive electrification are studied.The result shows that(1)The total carbon emissions of automobiles will reach 1.553 billion tons in 2031 at peak with the development of automotive electrification.(2)Since then,due to the stable number of vehicles in production period and the expanding scales of vehicles in driving period,the total carbon emissions of automobiles will decrease by 3.53%in 2035 compared with the peak.(3)As the carbon emission reduction effect brought by the development of automobile electrification is reflected,when the proportion of thermal power in the energy structure of electricity generation end decreases by 1%and 2%,the peak of automobiles’carbon emissions will decrease by 0.64%and 1.16%respectively compared with the baseline scenario,and the total carbon emissions of automobiles will reach the peak in 2029.(4)When power consumption per 100 kilometers of battery electric vehicles reduces to 11.0,9.0 kW·h/(100 km)in 2035,the peak of automobiles’carbon emissions will be lower than the baseline scenario and will appear in 2029,and the total carbon emissions will decrease by 5.19%and 6.47%in 2035 respectively compared with their respective peaks.(5)If we further increase the launch of electric vehicles,when the proportion of new battery electric vehicles is 40%constantly,due to the higher carbon emissions in the production stage in the short term,the total carbon emissions of automobiles will be 11-31 million tons higher than the baseline scenario.Then,the carbon emissions reduction effect will be amplified due to the large-scale number of battery electric vehicles in driving period,and the total carbon emissions of automobiles will reach the peak in 2027 which is advanced.It means that reducing the proportion of thermal power at the power generation end,improving the comprehensive performance of battery electric vehicles,and reasonably formulating the battery electric vehicles launch strategies will help reduce carbon emissions.