基于层次分析法的水利工程项目风险管理探讨

Risk Management of Water Conservancy Project Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

针对乌苏市大湾干渠至大二泉分洪渠首段渠道改建工程项目,通过层次分析法对水利工程项目施工风险管理进行分析,提出相关风险防范与化解措施,结论如下:(1)风险识别包括质量、工期、造价、安全四方面共12个因素;(2)通过层次分析法评估风险因素,并确定各因素的综合权重,其中综合权重超过2%的风险因素有9项(重点因素)低于2%的有3项(非重点因素);安全风险中施工规范的综合权重高达38.39%。

Based on the channel reconstruction project of the head section of Wusu Dawan main canal to Daerquan flood diversion canal,this paper analyses the construction risk management of water conservancy projects through the analytic hierarchy process and puts forward the prevention and resolution measures for relevant risks.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Risk identification mainly includes 12 risk factors including quality,construction period,cost,and safety.(2)The risk factors identified are assessed by the analytic hierarchy process to determine the comprehensive weight of each risk factor.Among them,there are 9 risk factors with a comprehensive weight of more than 2%,the comprehensive weight of Construction Standardization in safety risk is even as high as 38.39%,and there are 3 risk factors with a comprehensive weight of less than 2%.