基于MIV-GA-BP模型的农产品冷链物流需求预测

Demand Forecast of Agricultural Products Cold Chain Logistics Based on MIV-GA-BP Model

生鲜农产品冷链物流受到大众的关注与政策的支持,面对行业统计工作滞后,影响需求预测的因素众多等问题,提出一种MIV-GA-BP模型的农产品冷链物流需求预测方法。使用MIV算法筛选出对需求预测结果有较大影响的指标,实现提高模型预测精度的目标。研究结果表明:建立的农产品冷链物流需求预测模型具有较高的精确度和较好的拟合能力,能够有效地反映需求的波动与变化趋势,为农产品冷链物流研究提供预测参考。

The cold chain logistics of fresh agricultural products is concerned by the public and supported by policies.Facing the problems of lagging statistical work in the industry and many factors affecting demand forecasting,this paper puts forward a demand forecasting method of cold chain logistics of agricultural products based on MIV-GA-BP model.The MIV algorithm is used to screen out the indexes that have great influence on the demand forecasting results,so as to achieve the goal of improving the forecasting accuracy of the model.The results show that the established demand forecasting model of agricultural products cold chain logistics has high accuracy and good fitting ability,which can effectively reflect the fluctuation and changing trend of demand,and provide forecasting reference for the research of agricultural products cold chain logistics.