民事电子证据证明力认定及其量化研究

Identification and Quantitative Research on Probative Force of Civil Electronic Evidence

与其他传统民事证据相比,法官在认定民事电子证据证明力时往往带有更多的不确定性,采信率不高、判断标准不统一等司法困境已经严重制约了民事电子证据用于发现案件事实真相之功能的发挥。该司法困境的形成是民事电子证据自身的专业性和自由心证制度下法官认知的差异性双重因素共同起作用的结果。解决之道在于自由心证的客观化制约,这与民事电子证据之体系定案的应有之义——“客观的印证”是相契合的。具体进路在于通过量化民事电子证据对待证事实的证明程度,构建起民事电子证据证明力的数值权重,为法官的认定活动提供直观的数字化参考。概率统计中的贝叶斯定理是一种科学的量化方法,其基于人们所具有的知识,用概率来度量人们对一个不确定事件的真实性的相信程度。但是,人们要用工具理性和司法公正的眼光去看待它在民事电子证据证明力认定中的运用,以避免自由心证之证明制度的丧失以及算法偏差影响客观化效果。

Compared with other traditional civil evidence,judges tend to have more uncertainties when determining the probative power of civil electronic evidence.The judicial dilemma of disunity of judgnent standard and low acceptance rate has seriously restricted the function of civil electronic evidence to discover the truth of cases.The formation of the judicial dilemma is the result of the professional civil electronic evidence itself and the difference of judges'cognition under the system of free psychological evidence.The solution lies in the objective restriction of free psychological evidence,which is in accordance with the so-called“objective verification”,being the truth meaning of the systematic decision of civil electronic evidence.The concrete approach is to construct the numerical weight of civil electronic evidence by quantifying the degree of civil electronic evidence to prove facts,so as to provide intuitive digital reference for judges'cognizance activities.Bayes'theorem in probability statistics is a scientific quantitative method using probability to measure people's belief in the authenticity of an uncertain event based on their knowledge.In order to avoid the loss of the proof system of free psychological evidence and the influence of algorithm deviation on the effect of objectification,people should view its application in the confirmation of civil electronic evidence from the perspective of instrumental rationality and judicial justice.