情报业务语境下的弱信号理论解析

Weak-Signal Theoretical Analysis in the Context of Intelligence Practice

[研究目的]情报业务语境下的弱信号研究还缺乏深入的理论探索。该文旨在通过对其理论内容的解析,为弱信号在情报工作中的运用提供坚实的理论基础。[研究方法]该文借助信号哲学和设计思维等理论元素,经过系统性的文献整合与理论思辨,完成了四个方面的理论构建:弱信号内涵的再界定、相似相关概念的辨析、创生类型和演化路径的刻画以及量化测度方法的形成。[研究结论]研究表明:弱信号由感知域、问题域、意义构建和感知者四要素构成;弱信号与相似概念有着不同的内在机理,与相关概念存在着演变关系;弱信号具有四种创生类型和五条演化路径;弱信号三角度量表达式由相离度、包含度、相交度和意义构建系数等内容组成。

[Research purpose]At present,there is lacking of in-depth theoretical exploration with respect to weak-signal research in the context of intelligence practice.This article aims to provide a solid theoretical basis for the application of weak-signal in intelligence activities by analyzing its theoretical content.[Research method]In this article,taking advantage of some theoretical elements such as signal philosophy and design thinking.Meanwhile,making use of systematic literature integration and theoretical speculation.Four aspects of theoretical construction have been completed which are the redefinition of weak-signal connotation,the discrimination of similar and related concepts,the description of creation types and evolution paths,and the formation of quantitative measurement method.[Research conclusion]Research shows that weak-signal is composed of four elements:perception domain,question domain,sense-making and percipient;weak-signal has different internal mechanism with similar concepts,and there is an evolutionary relationship between weak-signal and related concepts;weak-signal has four types of creation and five evolutionary paths;the triangulation measurement expression of weak-signal consists of the degree of separation,the degree of inclusion,the degree of intersection and the sense-making coefficient.