能源价格与房地产市场波动--来自中国地级市层面的经验证据

Energy Price Fluctuation and Real Estate Market Risk Prevention:Evidence at the Prefecture-level City Level in China

能源价格波动对宏观经济的冲击是学术界持续关注的热点问题,但鲜有文献关注到能源价格波动对房价的影响及其可能产生的金融风险。本文基于中国地级及以上城市数据,实证检验了能源价格波动对国内房地产市场价格波动的影响,并分析其影响机制和传导途径。结果表明,能源价格变化将显著影响国内房地产价格波动,且在大城市和超大城市表现得更加明显。能源价格一方面通过利率水平变化影响购房需求,另一方面通过住房建设成本影响房地产市场供给,从而导致房价波动。该结论经过一系列稳健性检验,结果依然成立。同时,这一影响具有非对称性,即能源价格上涨会导致房价波动加剧,但能源价格下跌的影响并不显著。本文不仅为房价形成机制提供新的视角,也丰富了能源与金融市场间相互联系的研究。

“Coordinating development and security[and]preventing and dissolving financial risks”is an important part of China's economic development and deepening reforms.Risks in the real estate market,especially abnormal fluctuations in real estate prices,the resulting economic bubbles,and the phenomenon of“deviation from the real to the virtual,”are key issues that threaten the country's economic and financial security.A large amount of domestic and foreign literature studies the causes of the formation and fluctuation of real estate prices from the perspectives of land finance,monetary policy,population,and urbanization.In addition,the literature proposes the principles and measures of real estate market price regulation based on predicting real estate price trends.However,the literature ignores the possibly significant impact of energy price fluctuations on real estate price fluctuations.Because energy is a necessary input for modern production and modern life,the safety of its storage,extraction,and transportation are hot issues that attract global attention.In the 1970s,with the outbreak of shocks such as the“oil crisis,”abnormal fluctuations in energy prices led to stagnant growth and increased unemployment in major global economies that were accompanied by severe inflation and even triggered economic crises.Academics and policymakers began to realize that there might be important correlations between energy price fluctuations,macroeconomics,and financial markets.After 2000,the impact of energy price fluctuations on macroeconomic growth and inflation levels weakened,and the relationship between energy prices and macroeconomic variables changed significantly.In 2008,the outbreak of the global financial crisis provided a new perspective from which to study the relationship between energy prices and financial markets.Some studies note that the rapid rise in energy prices is an important reason for the bursting of the real estate bubble,the violent fluctuation of asset market prices,and the evolution of the global economic crisis.Although the link between energy prices and the real estate market appears overly broad,it has a clear basis in reality.In the case of rising energy prices,monetary policies that aim to contain inflation expectations,such as raising interest rates,may lead to an increase in the defective rate of housing mortgage loans.At the same time,sharp rises in oil prices drive up the prices of other energy sources and residential living expenses.Due to the low price elasticity of household energy consumption,residents must postpone other consumption,objectively leading to a decline in their ability to repay their mortgages and an increase in the defective rate of housing loans.The above-referenced factors are intertwined,eventually leading to the bursting of the real estate market bubble and the financial crisis.The 2008 global financial crisis provides an important inspiration for us to renew our understanding of the impact of energy price fluctuations on the financial market,especially the real estate market.Based on domestic research and the current situation,the impact of energy prices on the fluctuation of real estate prices has not yet attracted attention.The main reason is that China's market-oriented reform of domestic energy prices is incomplete.However,the severe energy shortage of 2021 in some areas of China reveals that the reform of the resource and energy price formation mechanism is lagging.Furthermore,the price linkage mechanism of domestic and foreign energy markets is not perfect,and the problem with this mechanism has become an important factor restricting high-quality development of the domestic economy.In the future,domestic energy prices will be more flexible,fluctuate significantly,and have an increasingly strong effect on residents'living expenses and welfare levels.From this perspective,research on the relationship between energy prices and real estate price fluctuations has a practical significance as it not only expands the traditional research framework on the relationship between energy prices and macroeconomics,but also provides a new perspective on predicting and preventing financial market risks.For the reasons set forth above,we use the data of prefecture-level and larger cities in China to empirically analyze the relationship between energy price changes and house price fluctuations and examine its impact mechanism and routes.Our empirical results are as follows.First,similar to developed countries,energy price fluctuation is an cause of real estate price fluctuations in China.To prevent financial risks caused by real estate market fluctuations,it is necessary to pay attention to the role of energy prices.Second,the impact of energy prices on real estate prices occurs mainly through the intermediary of interest rates that affect the demand for house purchases and the intermediary of construction costs and investments that affect the supply of real estate.Third,by considering the population size factor,we find that the impact of energy prices on real estate prices is greater and more obvious in megacities than elsewhere.Fourth,the impact of energy prices on real estate prices is asymmetric;although rising energy prices lead to increased fluctuations in real estate prices,the impact of falling energy prices is non-significant.