互联网消费信贷与传统消费信贷:互补还是替代?

Internet consumer credit and traditional consumer credit:Complementation or

近年来,随着互联网消费信贷迅速发展,其与传统消费信贷之间存在互补还是替代关系引发关注.在此大背景下,本文基于包含获客成本、申请成本与违约风险识别效率在内的信贷市场均衡模型,从理论层面阐释了互联网消费信贷与商业银行消费信贷之间存在互补性,并从中国某头部金融科技公司随机抽取2017年1月至2019年7月连续31个月50万名互联网消费信贷产品用户的海量数据进行了实证检验.结果表明:互联网消费信贷与传统商业银行消费信贷的相关性由收入效应和竞争效应共同决定,且在全样本中收入效应显著大于竞争效应,整体上呈现正向关系.进一步地,本文在引入下沉市场程度后发现,随着消费市场逐步下沉,收入效应与竞争效应此消彼长,在下沉市场表现出一定的互补性,且随着下沉程度加深,这种互补性表现得更为显著.这表明互联网消费信贷服务能够触达传统商业银行信贷无法触及到的“增量”下沉市场,促进消费升级和普惠金融发展.此外,本文还发现金融科技平台的大数据风控授信与商业银行的授信效果在下沉群体中无显著差异,并未随着消费群体下沉而发生系统性偏离.为正确认识金融科技与传统金融之间关系,进一步推进普惠金融与消费升级提供了有益启示.

Based on the credit market equilibrium model including customer acquisition cost,application cost and default risk identification efficiency,this paper analyses the complementarity between internet consumer credit and commercial bank consumer credit from the theoretical perspective.In order to verify the relationship between the two,an empirical test is conducted based on 500000 randomly-selected users who used internet consumer credit product from January 2017 to July 2019 in a head Fintech company in China.The results show that the correlation between internet consumer credit and commercial bank consumer credit is determined by the"income effect"and the"competition effect";the"income effect"is significantly greater than the competition effect in the full sample,showing a positive relationship as a whole.Meanwhile,this study finds that the"income effect"decreases and the"competition effect"increases with the gradual sinking of the consumer market,showing a certain degree of complementarity on the sinking market.Further,this complementarity is more significant as market sinking degree deepens.This shows that internet consumer credit can better reach the"incremental"sinking market that cannot be reached by bank credit,and promote the upgrading of household consumption and the development of inclusive finance.In addition,this study also finds that the effects of big data risk management and traditional bank risk management show no significant differences among different sinking groups,and the effect of big data risk management has not systematically deviated with the sinking of consumer groups.This study provides useful enlightenment for correctly understanding the relationship between Fintech and traditional finance,and for promoting inclusive finance and consumption upgrading.