基于粒计算的突发性复合疫情风险评估模型构建

Construction of risk assessment model for sudden compound epidemic based on granular computing

新冠(COVID-19)疫情的持续性扩散引发与其他传染病时空叠加的复合型风险,对我国突发性公共卫生事件的应急管理体系提出严峻考验.现有风险评估方法主要研究疫情风险因素独立作用产生的影响,不适用于现实中各风险因子叠加、耦合作用的复杂情形.本文首先建立粒计算情景层次模型,构建各粒层间的映射并藉此定义向上的泛化求解算法,提出“三层四段五情六粒”的风险评估-防控框架.其次采用2020年武汉市疫情发展数据与2020年广州市疫情演变的多风险因素数据,进行“市县-省-区域”三层复合风险求解的实证分析.以广州市疫情数据为例,将粒计算对比常用的层次分析法进行疫情风险评估.分析结果表明:1)长江中下游区域防控资源调度风险指数最高为55.85,珠江中下游区域防控资源调度风险指数最高为21.45,两地在防控资源调度风险指数上差值较大.2)粒计算方法与层次分析法评估疫情经济损失风险上的结果基本一致,但在防控资源调度风险和新冠病毒传播风险上存在较大差距.由现实情况可验证粒计算模型的有效性.最后提出新冠病毒传播风险、疫情经济损失风险、防控资源调度风险三方面的防控措施,为更好实现疫情防控的应急管理提供建议参考.

The COVID-19 epidemic has caused compound risks that are superimposed in time and space with other infectious diseases,which poses a severe challenge to country’s emergency management system of public health emergencies.Existing risk assessment methods mainly study the independent effects of epidemic risk factors,which is not suitable for the complex situation of coupling risk factors in reality.This paper firstly establishes a granular computing scenario hierarchy model,constructs the mapping between each granular layer and define an algorithm with an upward generalization,and proposes a risk assessment-prevention framework of“three layers,four sections,five emotions and six grains”.Secondly,using the epidemic development data of Wuhan in 2020 and the multi-risk factor data of the epidemic evolution of Guangzhou in 2020,to carry out an empirical analysis of the three-layer composite risk solution of“citycounty-province-region”.Taking the epidemic data of Guangzhou as an example,the granular computing is compared with the commonly used AHP for epidemic risk assessment.The results show that:1)The risk index of prevention and control resource dispatch in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is 55.85,and the risk index of prevention and control resource dispatch in the middle reaches of the Pearl River is 21.45.There is a large difference in the risk index of prevention and control resource dispatching between the two places.2)The results of both methods in evaluating the economic loss risk of the epidemic are basically the same,but there is a big gap in the prevention and control of resource scheduling risks and the risk of new coronavirus transmission.The actual situation can verify the accuracy of the granular computing model.Finally,three prevention and control measures are put forward in terms of the risk of new crown virus transmission,the risk of economic loss of the epidemic,and the risk of prevention and control of resource scheduling,so as to provide suggestions for better emergency management of epidemic prevention and control.