前景理论视角下大数据资产价值的实物期权评估方法研究

Research on a New Real Option Approach for Assessment of Big Data Asset Based on Prospect Theory

提出了一种新的大数据资产的价值评估方法.在实物期权理论的基础上,将前景理论中的值函数用于计算标的资产每种状态下公司决策者对其价值的主观判断,运用决策权重函数来计算决策者对于规模扩张权、规模收缩权等的主观权重.并基于文献的研究结果,选取了一个算例,利用最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟对模型进行了模拟计算,得到了合理的大数据资产的评估值.创新点在于:考虑了公司决策者在决定如何运用大数据资产为企业带来收益时的非理性,构建了基于前景理论的大数据资产价值的实物期权定价模型,并且考虑到了在执行规模收缩权时,标的资产的状态可能处于盈利或亏损两种状态的情况.提出的估值模型期望可以为更好地评估大数据资产价值提供一些参考.

In this paper,we propose a new approach for assessment of big data asset.Based on real option theory,we use the value function proposed in prospect theory to calculate the decision-makers'subjective judgment on the value of underlying asset under each state.The weighting function proposed in prospect theory is used to calculate the decision-makers'subjective weight on each state.Based on the result of literature research,we choose an example,build a model with least-squares Monte Carlo simulation method and perform simulations.After that,a reasonable estimate value of big data asset is obtained.The innovations of this paper are that:We take the irrationality of decision-makers into account in considering how to use big data assets to get benefits to the company,and build a real option pricing model based on prospect theory for assessment of big data assets.In addition,we point out the two possibilities when exercising the downsize option which means underlying asset may be in the region of gains or the region of losses at that time point.We hope the pricing model proposed in this paper can provide some references for better assessing big data assets.