中国人口负增长:特征、挑战与应对

Negative Population Growth in China:Characteristics,Challenges,and Responses

人口负增长是人口发展的客观规律。中国人口由正增长转变为负增长的过程呈现出转折速度快、出门即低点、未发达先转负的特征,且中国未来的人口负增长将呈现出“持续时间长、发展速度快、缩减规模大、回弹难度大”的演变趋势。未来长期型、快速型人口负增长将给中国经济发展带来潜在风险和挑战,必须加快构建生育支持政策体系,持续提高人口质量,合理优化人口空间布局,有效激发消费增长活力,全面提升劳动生产率,主动积极应对人口负增长。

China's negative population growth is an objective law of population development,with a unique transition process and development trend.In the future,long-term and rapid negative population growth may pose challenges to the economy.It is necessary to cope with negative population growth actively by establishing a fertility support policy system,improving population quality,optimizing the spatial layout of the population,raising per capita consumption,and enhancing labor productivity.