从人力资源总量视角分析人口负增长对中国经济发展的影响

China's Declining Population Does Not Imply Declining Economic Growth:The Perspective of Steady Growth of Human Capital

在中国经济尚未完全迈入高收入国家行列之时,中国人口已经出现负增长,这引发了广泛的焦虑。打破人口焦虑,亟须在理论认识上正本清源,认识到人力资源总量而非人口总量才是决定经济长期增长潜力的关键因素。由于国民健康水平和受教育水平持续提高,中国正在从人口大国迈向人力资源大国,2050年的人力资源总量将相当于2020年16.44亿人的人口当量。因此,应积极推行相关务实政策,提升和利用好不断增加的人力资源,助推中国经济长期稳步增长。

In 2022,China saw a population decline while just entering the rank of high-income countries.This has caused widespread anxiety in Chinese society.Worldwide,many analysts predict a rapid decline in China's economic growth due to the peaking of the population.However,we disagree with this by arguing that it is the stock of human capital,rather than the amount of young labor,that determines the growth potential of a country.By our estimates,due to continued improvements in public health and education,China's aggregate human capital is positioned to continue growing steadily between now and 2050.Chinese aggregate human capital in 2050 will be equivalent to 1.644 billion by the health and education standard of 2020.This implies that the Chinese economy has the potential to continue growing at the pace of 5.9%,4.9%,and 4.1%for the coming three decades,respectively.The key to realizing this potential for economic growth is to establish pragmatic policies to fully utilize China's increasing human capital.