O2O外卖商圈划分及顾客需求分布规律发现

The Division of O2O Takeaway Business Zone and Discovery of Customer Demand Distribution Law

面对O2O外卖配送中高频海量的顾客订单,如何划分O2O外卖商圈并分析顾客需求区域分布规律,对于优化配置骑手资源,提高配送效率具有重要价值。基于O2O外卖大量历史数据,首先将外卖订单分布区域划分成网络单元格,以网格内信息的统计数据代表此范围内订单的特征;引入新型的无核二次曲面支持向量回归模型刻画订单(即顾客需求)均价与位置、优惠均价及额外成本均价之间的关系,确定最优的网格大小。从顾客的视角出发,基于网格模型与O2O外卖订单量的密度,采用网格密度聚类方法划分O2O外卖商圈。与O2O外卖企业所采用的商圈划分比较,有效地降低了外卖平均配送距离与商圈划分个数,使得骑手尽量在指定的商圈内配送且降低了商圈资源分配的成本,亦验证了O2O商圈划分从顾客需求密度角度比传统的行政区域及商户位置更有效。最后,基于新划分的O2O外卖商圈及相关系数发现O2O外卖顾客需求区域分布规律,包括不同类型商户与订单的分布规律及消费者的成本偏好等,为O2O外卖不同类型商家选址与订单定价提供指导性建议。

Facing high-frequency and massive customer orders in O2O takeaway platform,how to divide O2O takeaway business zone and analyze the spatial distribution law of customer demand is of great value for optimizing the allocation of rider resources and improving the distribution efficiency.Based on a large amount of historical data in O2O takeaway platform,including the information of orders,merchants and customers.Firstly,the distribution area of takeaway orders is divided into network cells,and the statistical data in the grid represent the characteristics of orders in this network cell;A new soft quadratic surface support vector regression machine is introduced to characterize the relationship between the average price of orders(i.e.customer demands)and order location,the average price of discounts,the average price of additional costs,and then determine the optimal grid size.From the perspective of customers,based on the grid model and the density of O2O takeaway orders,the O2O takeaway business zone is divided by using the grid density clustering method.From the computational results,compared with the business zone division adopted by current O2O takeaway platforms,the average distance of takeaway delivery is decreased by 8.97%,the Davies-Bouldin Index is decreased by 73.61%,and the number of business zones is decreased by 56.10%.The newly-divided O2O takeaway business zones make the riders distribute within the designated business zone as much as possible,and reduces the cost of resource allocation in the business zones.The proposed division also verifies that the customer demand density is much more helpful than the information of traditional administrative regions and merchant locations in dividing the O2O business zone.Finally,based on the newly-divided O2O takeaway business zones and correlation coefficients,some spatial distribution laws of O2O takeaway customer demands are discovered,including the distribution law of different types of merchants and orders and the cost preference of customers,so as to provide some guiding managerial insights for the siting and pricing of different types of O2O takeaway merchants.For instance,managers may get more customer demands by locating the stores near campus or commercial buildings.The non-key merchants should try to locate in areas with high demands.If they can only be located in areas with low demands,areas with dense merchants should be avoided.When the key merchants open additional branches of stores,areas with low demands should be selected.Merchants should appropriately increase the box price and reduce the delivery price as much as possible,which can promote consumer consumption.However,residents in some first-tier cities are not sensitive to the price of takeaway.Merchants may not make more profits by adopting the strategy of small profits but quick turnover,they need to pay more attention to the timeliness and quality of takeaway services.