中国省区出口产品空间网络结构演化

Network structural evolution of export product space at the provincial level in China

网络资源是带动区域产业升级的重要力量。传统的投入产出网络只能映射产业关联的一方面,不能全面刻画产业之间的复杂关系。结合产品空间理论和复杂网络方法,本文使用新方法构建2000—2019年31省份的出口产品空间,在产品、关联和结构尺度上定量比较中国各省产品空间的结构特征和演化过程。研究发现:(1)从产品尺度上看,发达、发展中和欠发达省份的出口优势产品在产品空间中的位置逐次外移。动态来看,发达省份倾向拓展外围的高复杂品,欠发达省份致力于拓展核心的低复杂品,而发展中省份倾向拓展核心的高复杂品。(2)从关联和结构上看,三类省份的拓展路径分异:发达省份倾向以相关多样化拓展高复杂品,其中发挥主导作用的是链条式拓展。而欠发达省份以不相关多样化拓展更复杂的产品,但产品存活率较低。相关和不相关两种路径对发展中省份同等重要,其中,相关产品之链条式拓展的产品更复杂,而不相关产品的存活率高于其他两类省份。总之,本文综合考虑本地网络中技术、信息、需求和组织等多类资源,从网络视角解析区域产品拓展模式,为地方产业结构优化提供政策建议。

The industry space as a network resource plays a crucial role in local industrial upgrading.Traditional input-output networks can only reflect one aspect of industrial relatedness,which cannot fully portray the complex relationships between industries.Linking the product space theory and the complex network method,this paper uses a new method to construct the export product space of 31 provincial-level regions(heeafter provinces)from 2000-2019.We quantitatively compare the structure and evolution of the product space in the 31 provinces at the dimension of nodes,links,and motifs.We found that:(1)At the product scale,the position of developed,developing and less developed provinces in the product space shifts outward.Products positioning in the core of the product space do not necessarily have a higher level of complexity.Developed provinces expand more peripheral-high complexity products,less developed provinces into more core-low complexity products,while developing provinces expand the core-high complexity products mainly.(2)The expansion paths of the three types of provinces diverge in the relatedness and structure among products.Developed provinces tend to expand their technology boundaries with related diversification,where chain entry products are much more complex than group entry and have high technology extension.Less developed provinces tend to expand more complex products with unrelated diversification,but the product survival rate is lower.Both related and unrelated paths are equally important for product evolution in developing regions,where chain-entry products are more complex,while the survival rate of unrelated products is higher than that of the other two types of provinces.