2010-2020年中国城镇化的时空分异及影响因素

Spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of China's urbanization from 2010 to 2020

伴随中国城镇化进入中后期发展阶段,增进居民福祉成为核心目标,从“自上而下”的供给侧系统目标优化向“自下而上”的需求侧多维目标协同转变,为理解城镇化内涵提供新视角。本文从人居生活、人文环境、人城关系等维度界定了城镇化内涵框架与指标体系,并运用泰尔指数、方差分解及地理探测器等方法,解析2010-2020年中国城镇化的时空分异规律与影响因素变化。结果发现:2014年新型城镇化战略实施以来,中国城镇化发展取得显著成效,人居生活与人城关系稳步提升,人文环境有较大改善空间。城镇化高水平区域逐步向沿长江流域、黄河流域的内陆地区扩展,区域差异明显缩小,地区内差异贡献率呈现扩大趋势。人居生活差异、人城关系差异是城镇化分异的主要原因,2014年以来人文环境差异的贡献率显著增大。对外开放和科技创新始终是人居生活差异的主要作用因子。随着新型城镇化战略实施,政府财政对人文环境差异的作用力逐渐降低。资源禀赋对人城关系差异影响相对较大。本文可为促进中国城镇化发展提供理论和经验支撑。

As China's urbanization has entered the middle and later stage and the improvement of well-being of residents has become a core goal,the transformation from"top-down"system goals optimization on the supply side to"bottom-up"multi-dimensional goals coordination on the demand side has become a new perspective to understand the connotation of urbanization.Based on the perspective of the human living conditions,the humanities environment,and human-city relationship,this paper constructs a connotation framework and index system of urbanization.Furthermore,Theil index is employed to analyze the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of China's urbanization before and after the implementation of the new-type urbanization strategy.Finally,in terms of both direct and indirect effect mechanisms,the mechanism framework of urbanization differentiation is constructed,and its evolution pattern is revealed by using Variance Decomposition and Geodetector.The results show that:since the implementation of the new-type urbanization strategy in 2014,China's urbanization has made remarkable achievements,with a steady improvement in human living conditions and human-city relationship,and there is still much room for improvement in the humanities environment.The high-level areas of urbanization are mainly distributed in coastal areas,and expanding to inland areas along the Yangtze River Basin and Yellow River Basin.The regional differences of urbanization gradually decrease,but the contribution rate of inner-regional differences shows an expanding trend.Differences in human living conditions and human-city relationship are the main factors of urbanization differentiation,but the contribution of differences in humanities environment is gradually expanding after 2014.Opening up and scientific&technological innovation are the main influencing factors of the difference in human living conditions.With the implementation of the new-type urbanization strategy,the impact on differences in humanities environment of the government finance gradually diminishes.Resource endowments have a relatively strong influence on differences in humancity relationship.This study can provide theoretical and empirical support for promoting the development of urbanization in China.