中国沿海地区产业演化路径依赖及突破对区域经济韧性的影响

Influence of industrial evolution path dependence and path creation on regional economic resilience:Taking the coastal areas of China as an example

区域产业演化路径依赖和路径突破是探讨演化经济地理学视角下区域经济韧性的关键。本文以中国沿海地区为研究对象,基于面板数据对2002-2017年区域经济韧性、产业演化路径依赖和路径突破进行测度并分析其时空分布特征,利用一步系统GMM估计,揭示了影响中国沿海地区区域经济韧性的主要因素。研究发现:(1)金融危机初期,中国沿海各地区经济韧性差距缩小,但随后出现较明显分异:上海和广东呈“U”型分布;福建、广西和海南不断提高并维持在较高水平;江苏和浙江的在金融危机时期和新常态初期出现两次下降,随后较快回升;环渤海地区则大多为负值。(2)中国沿海各地区产业演化路径依赖度普遍高于路径突破度,且整体呈现出波动下降和上升的趋势,以路径依赖为主的产业演化逐渐向路径突破方向转变。(3)金融危机冲击下各地区新产业的数量明显减少,新产业在钢铁及其制品的进入优势迅速下降,转而集中出现在化工、机械制造等产业。(4)产业演化路径依赖和路径突破对提高区域经济韧性都有显著的促进作用,且路径突破对经济韧性提升的作用更为突出。

Regional industrial evolution path dependence and path creation are the key to investigate regional economic resilience from the perspective of evolutionary economic geography.Exploring the impact of industrial evolutionary path dependence and path creation on regional economic resilience based on regional new industries from an empirical perspective can improve the understanding of industrial evolutionary path and regional economic resilience.Taking the coastal areas of China as an example,we measure and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics based on a panel data from 2002 to 2017.This paper explores the main affecting factors of regional economic resilience in China's coastal areas by using one-step system GMM.Results show that:(1)The gaps in regional economic resilience in China's coastal areas has narrowed in the early financial crisis,but then presented obvious differentiation.Shanghai and Guangdong showed a U-shaped distribution;Fujian,Guangxi and Hainan continued to improve and maintain a high level;Jiangsu and Zhejiang saw two declines and then recovered quickly during the financial crisis and the early stage of the new normal;the Bohai Rim is mostly negative.(2)The path dependency in China's coastal areas is generally higher than path creativity.The overall industrial evolution path dependency and path creativity showed a fluctuating trend of decline and rise respectively,and path creation gradually became the main direction of industrial evolution.(3)The number of new industries in each region decreased significantly under the impact of the financial crisis.The advantages of new industries in steel and its products declined rapidly,and then concentrated in chemical industry,machinery manufacturing and other industries.(4)Dialectically looking at different evolutionary paths is of great significance to regional resilience.Both path dependence and path creation of industrial evolution have a positive influence on regional economic resilience,and the influence of path creation is more prominent.In addition,economic development level,per fixed assets investment and ratio of fixed asset investment to GDP affect economic resilience at the same time.