中国中部地区高质量发展的时空演变及形成机理

The spatiotemporal pattern evolution and formation mechanism of high-quality development in Central China

国家战略区域的高质量发展是当今学界所关注的热点话题,中国中部地区承东启西、连南接北,对中国区域协调发展格局具有举足轻重的支撑作用。目前关于中国中部地区高质量发展的多尺度、多维度综合分析相对匮乏。本文基于中国中部地区高质量发展的基本逻辑与科学内涵构建评价指标体系,测度2006-2019年中国中部地区高质量发展水平,从多级空间尺度考察中部地区高质量发展的时空格局,借助传统与空间Kernel密度估计方法分析中部地区高质量发展的分布动态演进和长期转移趋势,并从结构视角探究其形成机理。结果表明:(1)中国中部地区高质量发展水平低于全国均值但增速较快;与东部地区差距明显,与西部、东北地区接近;中部地区呈现“省会城市优于非省会城市”的分布格局。(2)中国中部地区高质量发展总体向好但存在空间极化趋势,其中河南、湖北两极分化现象相对突出。中部地区高质量发展普遍具有“俱乐部趋同”特征;区域整体及多数省份中高水平邻域城市的正向溢出效应显著,而湖北、山西的空间溢出效应均不明显。(3)结构视角下,中国中部与其他地区的差异主要源于经济结构、生态环境与民生发展差异,内部差异来自协调与创新差异;结构优化、民生发展是中部地区高质量发展的主要动力,各省极化特征的形成机理各不相同,其中河南、湖北的两极分化趋势主要由结构协调与科技创新的极化特征决定;产业要素溢出、生态合作发展与民生共建共享是区域整体高质量发展转移的主要驱动因素,而各省份转移的形成机理存在明显的空间异质性。

The high-quality development of national strategic regions is a hot topic in today's academic circles.Central China connects the east to the west and links the south to the north,which plays a pivotal role in supporting the coordinated development in China.At present,there is a relative lack of multi-scale and multi-dimensional comprehensive analysis on highquality development in Central China.Based on the basic logic and scientific connotation of high-quality development in Central China,this paper constructs an evaluation index system to measure the high-quality development level of Central China from 2006 to 2019,and examines the spatiotemporal pattern of high-quality development in Central China from a multi-level spatial scale,and uses the traditional and spatial kernel density to analyze the distribution dynamic evolution and long-term transfer trend,and explores its formation mechanism from a structural perspective.The results show that:(1)The high-quality development level in Central China is lower than the national average,but the growth rate is relatively large;the gap is obvious between the eastern and central regions,and it is close to the western and northeastern regions;Central China presents a distribution pattern of"provincial capital cities are better than non-provincial capital cities".(2)The high-quality development in Central China is generally good,but there is a trend of spatial polarization,among which,Henan and Hubei are prominent.The high-quality development in Central China generally has the characteristics of"club convergence";the positive spillover effect of the high-level neighboring cities in the whole region and most provinces is significant,while the spatial spillover effect of Hubei and Shanxi is not obvious.(3)From the perspective of structure,the differences between the central and other regions are mainly due to differences in economic structure,ecological environment and people's livelihood development,and internal differences come from differences in coordination and innovation;structural optimization and people's livelihood development are the main driving forces for high-quality development in Central China,and the formation mechanism of polarization characteristics varies from province to province.Among them,the polarization trend of Henan and Hubei is mainly determined by the characteristics of structural coordination and technological innovation;the spillover of industrial elements,ecological cooperation and development,and people's livelihood co-construction and sharing are the main reasons for the transfer of high-quality development in the region,but there is obvious spatial heterogeneity in the formation mechanism of transfer across provinces.