2020-2022年COVID-19疫情对中国居民消费及消费结构的影响

The impact of COVID-19 on China's household consumption and consumption structure in 2020-2022

2020年以来,新型冠状病毒感染(COVID-19)在国内多个城市多次复发,对居民生活及消费产生显著冲击,准确测评疫情冲击对居民消费及消费结构的影响,是疫情经济评估和促进居民消费恢复的重要问题。依据2020年1月-2022年9月居民消费月度数据,基于本底趋势线模型、月指数分解及本底线距平分析方法,开展了COVID-19疫情对居民消费结构影响的定量评估研究。结果发现:(1)疫情对居民8类消费均造成直接影响,食品、衣着、居住等消费损失较小,而交通、文化娱乐、医疗保健等损失较大,生活刚需性消费恢复周期明显快于可选择性消费;6波疫情引起8类消费高分辨距平波动曲线各不相同;(2)比较疫情前后3年消费结构变化,发现疫情冲击下居民消费恩格尔系数反弹2个百分点,精神恩格尔系数下降2.6个百分点,结构多样化指数下降3.4个百分点,短期消费结构降级明显;对比疫情冲击期与平缓期的消费结构变化,也呈现与此相似的波动周期;(3)就6波疫情的影响来看,2020年武汉疫情和2022年上海疫情影响更大,导致居民各类消费损失高达1092元/人和490元/人。此外,本文还对食品消费增长、医疗消费持续负距平等,结合消费者物价指数(CPI)变动和政府防疫政策进行了成因分析。本文为认识COVID-19疫情对中国居民消费及消费结构影响提供了理论参考。

Since 2020,the COVID-19 epidemic has repeatedly resurfaced in several cities in China,causing significant shocks to residents'lives and consumption.Accurately measuring the impact of the epidemic shock on household consumption and its structure is an important issue in the economic assessment of the epidemic and in promoting the recovery of household consumption.Based on the monthly data of household consumption from January 2020 to September 2022,this paper conducted a quantitative assessment study of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on household consumption structure based on the tourism background trend line theory,the monthly index decomposition model and the background line distance level analysis method.The results found that:(I)The COVID-19 epidemic had a direct impact on all eight types of consumption,with smaller losses in food,clothing and housing,and larger losses in transport,culture and entertainment,and healthcare,etc.The recovery period for the rigid demand was significantly faster than that for optional consumption;the six waves of the epidemic caused different curves of fluctuations in the high-resolution distance levels of the eight types of consumption.(2)Comparing the changes in consumption structure in the three years before and after the epidemic,we found that:the Engel's coefficient of consumption rebounded by 2 percentage points.The mental Engel's coefficient dropped by 2.6 percentage points.The structural diversification index dropped by 3.4 percentage points.This means that an obvious downgrading happened in the structure of short-term consumption.Comparing the structural changes in consumption in the period of the epidemic shock with those in the period of the epidemic slowdown,a similar fluctuation cycle was observed.(3)In terms of the impact of the six waves of the epidemic,the Wuhan epidemic in 2020 and the Shanghai epidemic in 2022 had a greater impact,resulting in losses of up to 1092 yuan per capita and 490 yuan per capita for all types of consumption by residents.Finally,combining the variation of CPI and the epidemic prevention policies,this paper conducts a cause analysis of food consumption growth and the continued negative margin of healthcare consumption.