地方政府“两手”供地策略对产业结构优化的非线性影响——基于合理化与高级化双重视角的考察

Nonlinear Effects of Local Government’s“Dual-Track”Land Supply Strategy on the Optimization of Industrial Structure:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Dual Perspectives of Rationalization and Supererogation

研究目的:利用276个地级市2007—2020年的面板数据,分析不同经济发展阶段内,地方政府“两手”供地策略对产业结构合理化、高级化的差别化影响,为调整土地供给策略,推动产业结构优化提供相应的政策启示。研究方法:面板门槛模型。研究结果:(1)对于产业结构合理化,以25438.02元(2007年价)的人均GDP为门槛,将城市经济发展水平划分为低、高两个阶段,两阶段内地方政府“两手”供地策略对产业结构合理化分别表现为积极与消极影响,消极影响的大小为积极影响的1.78倍。(2)对于产业结构高级化,以23694.54元(2007年价)的人均GDP为门槛,将城市经济发展水平划分为低、高两个阶段,两阶段内地方政府“两手”供地策略对产业结构高级化分别表现为积极与消极影响,两者大小基本一致。(3)全国层面上,地方政府“两手”供地策略对产业结构合理化与高级化差别化影响的转变出现在2010—2011年间;城市层面上,多数城市积极影响已经转变为消极影响。研究结论:地方政府“两手”供地策略对产业结构合理化、高级化的差别化影响具有同步、同方向的“双同”特征,有序地推进“两手”供地策略的市场化转型,可以最大程度获取积极影响并避免其消极影响。

The purpose of this study is to use the panel data of 276 prefecture level cities from 2007 to 2020 to analyze the differential impact and its interval effect level of the local government’s“dual-track”land supply strategy on the rationalization and supererogation of the industrial structure in different stages of economic development,so as to provide corresponding policy implications for adjusting the land supply strategy and promoting the optimization of the industrial structure.The research method is panel threshold model.The results show that:1)for the rationalization of the industrial structure,the per capita GDP of 25438.02 yuan(adjusted for inflation in 2007 prices)is used as the threshold,and the urban economic development level is divided into two stages,i.e.,low level and high level.The local government’s“dual-track”land supply strategy has both positive and negative effects on the rationalization of the industrial structure,and the magnitude of the negative impact is 1.78 times that of the positive.2)For the supererogation of the industrial structure,the per capita GDP of 23694.54 yuan(adjusted for inflation in 2007 prices)is used as the threshold,and the urban economic development level is divided into two stages,i.e.,low level and high level.The local government’s“dual-track”land supply strategy has both positive and negative effects on the supererogation of the industrial structure,and the positive and negative impacts are basically the same.3)At the national level,a transition in the differential impacts of the local government’s“dual-track”land supply strategy on the rationalization and supererogation of the industrial structure appeared in 2010-2011.At the city level,for most cities,the positive impact has turned into a negative one.It concludes that local government’s“dual-track”land supply strategy has the synchronous and the same direction impact on the rationalization and supererogation of industrial structure,orderly promoting the market-oriented transformation of local government’s“dual-track”land supply strategy can maximize the positive impact and avoid its negative impact.