认知偏差对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响——基于广东省880个样本农户的实证研究

Effects of Cognitive Bias on Farmers’Willingness to Rural Residential Land Withdrawal:An Empirical Study Based on 880 Sample Farmers in Guangdong Province

研究目的:基于前景理论分析认知偏差对农户宅基地退出意愿的影响机理,利用广东省880份调查数据进行实证检验,以期引导农户自愿有偿退出,提升政策实施成效,推进宅基地制度改革。研究方法:问卷调查法、二元Logistic回归模型。研究结果:(1)信息认知偏差以1%的统计水平显著影响退出意愿,回归系数为-1.830,其中负面经验锚定和高价格锚定显著抑制农户退出意愿;(2)群体认知偏差以1%的统计水平显著影响退出意愿,回归系数为-1.336,农户正面从众程度越高,退出意愿越强;(3)功能认知偏差以1%的统计水平显著负向影响退出意愿,回归系数为-0.782,高程度的保障、经济、心理功能感知显著降低农户退出意愿。研究结论:由于存在锚定、从众、禀赋效应,农户在宅基地退出行为决策中易形成信息、群体、功能认知偏差,最终影响其退出意愿。据此,增强农户宅基地退出意愿重点要从削弱负面经验锚定的抑制作用、发挥正面从众心理的促进作用、减轻禀赋效应和高价格锚定的负面影响三方面着手,加强信息化的基层动员宣传力度,发挥正向化的群体规范引导效用,制定多元化的退出补偿标准体系。

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence mechanism of cognitive bias on farmers’willingness to withdraw from rural residential land based on prospect theory,by using 880 survey data in Guangdong Province for empirical testing,to guide farmers to voluntarily withdraw with compensation,improve the effectiveness of policy and promote the reform of rural residential land institution.The research methods of questionnaire survey and binary logistic regression model are adopted in this study.The results show that:1)the information cognition bias significantly affects farmers’willingness to withdraw rural residential land at a statistical level of 1%,with a regression coefficient of-1.830.Negative experience anchoring and high price anchoring significantly inhibit withdrawal willingness.2)The group cognitive bias significantly affects the withdrawal willingness at the statistical level of 1%,and the regression coefficient is-1.336.The higher the positive conformity of farmers,the stronger their withdrawal willingness.3)The functional cognitive bias has a significant negative impact on farmers’willingness to withdraw rural residential land at a statistical level of 1%,with a regression coefficient of-0.782.High levels of security,economic and psychological function perception significantly reduce withdrawal willingness.In conclusion,due to the existence of anchoring,conformity and endowment effect,it is easy for farmers to form information,group and functional cognitive bias in the decision-making process of rural residential land withdrawal,which ultimately affects their willingness.Accordingly,to increase farmers’withdrawal willingness,the government should focus on three aspects:weakening the inhibitory effect of negative experience anchoring,playing the promoting role of positive conformity psychology,and alleviating the negative impact of endowment effect and high price anchoring.It is necessary to strengthen the mobilization and publicity of informatization at the grass-roots level,exert positive group norms and guiding effects,and formulate a diversified withdrawal compensation standard system.