民主化对政府质量的异质性效应:对城市化门槛的实证检验

Heterogeneous Effects of Democratization on Government Quality:An Empirical Investigation of the Threshold of Urbanization

民主化往往被认为可以提高政府质量,但诸多国家的民主化实践却伴随着政府质量的下降。作为一种情境因素,城市化不仅会带来群体利益的分化与关联,推动社会结构的变革,进而提升社会对民主表达的需求水平,还会通过社会生活的空间集聚强化公众之间的交流与互动,从而培育民主生活所需要的公民资本。本研究利用73个国家1996—2017年的面板数据,对城市化水平的门槛效应进行实证检验。结果发现,在民主水平与政府质量的关系上,城市化水平的确存在门槛效应,门槛值约为52%。当城市化率超过门槛值后,民主化有助于提升政府质量;而当城市化率低于门槛值时,民主化可能会导致政府质量的下降。对目前正处于民主化进程中的国家而言,应当推动城市化达到较高水平,以夯实民主制度运行的社会基础。

Democratization is often expected to improve government quality However,many countries saw a decline in the quality of government along with democratization As a contextual factor,urbanization brings about the diversification and interdependence of group interests,and the fundamental change of social structure,thereby raising the social demand for democratic representation In addition,it also strengthens communication and interaction among the public through the spatial agglomeration of social life,thereby fostering the civic capital needed for democratic life This study empirically tests the threshold effect of the level of urbanization using data from 73 countries from 1996 to 2017 The results find that urbanization plays a threshold role in the relationship between democratization and government quality,with a threshold value of about 52%Specifically,democratization can increase government quality when urbanization is higher than the threshold level Still,it may lead to a decline in government quality when the urbanization rate is below the threshold Therefore,it is necessary to promote urbanization to solidify the social foundation for the functioning of democratic institutions.