我国与欧盟“猪周期”动态关系分析

Analyzing the Dynamic Relations Between the Pork Cycles of the EU and China

欧盟是我国最大的猪肉进口来源市场,我国则是欧盟最大的猪肉出口目标市场,中欧猪肉产业具有较强互补性。采用Tramo/Seats季节调整和H-P滤波法分解得出我国和欧盟月度猪肉周期价格,并分析其变动特征。欧盟“猪周期”持续时间短,波动幅度小,与我国“猪周期”具有一定的同步性。我国与欧盟“猪周期”向量自回归(VAR)模型估计结果表明,我国和欧盟“猪周期”都具有显著的自相关特征,且能相互影响,我国有可能利用中欧“猪周期”差异部分克服本国“猪周期”给生产和消费带来的负面效应。

The EU was the largest source for China’s pork imports,while China was the largest export market for the pork producers of the EU.The pork industries of China and the EU were quite complementary.This paper calculated the cyclical pork prices of China and the EU by using a Tramo/Seats seasonal adjustment method and a Hodrick-Prescott filtration method.The pork cycle of the EU lasted shorter and vibrated narrower than that of China.The pork cycles of China and the EU were auto regressed,mutually affected,and showed a symptom of synchronicity.China might take the advantage of the differences of the pork cycles between China and the EU to stabilize its own pork markets.