双循环视角下收入不平等与经济增长关系的再检验

Re-examining the Relationship Between Income Inequality and Economic Growth Under the Perspective of Dual Circulations

探讨“以国内大循环为主”情形下,收入差距、消费内需和经济增长的关系,匹配了一套高质量收入不平等国际数据,并使用经典模型验证了数据的可靠性,进而从理论层面分析“外循环”和“内循环”发展模式下“收入不平等—消费内需—经济增长”路径,在经典模型中引入内需变量,采用系统广义矩估计法(系统GMM)方法进行研究。发现以“外循环”主导的经济增长模式下,收入不平等加剧与内需占比下降同时发生会促进经济增长,以及以“内循环”主导的经济增长模式下,收入均等化与内需占比上升同时发生也会促进经济增长。立足新的发展阶段,应进一步深化收入分配改革,缩小收入差距,增强居民消费能力和消费意愿,最终实现经济增长向“以国内大循环为主”转变。

This paper discusses the relationship between income gap,domestic consumption demand and economic growth under the development pattern of"inner economic cycle as a leading role".First,it matches a set of high-quality international data on income inequality,and verifies the reliability of matching inequality data using the classical model.Then,it theoretically analyzes the influence path of"income inequality-domestic consumption demand-economic growth"under the development model of"outer cycle"and"inner cycle".Finally,it introduces the variables of domestic consumption demand into the classical model,and carries on the empirical analysis using system GMM method.Results show:(1)the deterioration of income inequality and the decline of domestic demand consumption share occur at same time,it will promote economic growth under the economic development model dominated by"outer cycle";(2)the improvement of income inequality and the rise of domestic demand consumption share occur at same time,it will promote economic growth under the economic development model dominated by"inner cycle义".In the new stage of development,it is necessary to deepen the reform of income distribution,narrow the income gap,enhance the consumption ability and willingness of the residents,and finally realize the transformation of economic growth pattern to the"inner economic cycle as a leading role".