摘要
为科学有效地对城市间快递业务量进行预测,综合考虑城市经济发展水平和运输距离等影响因素,首先使用三次指数平滑法预测城市的快递业务总量,再使用主成分分析法和贸易引力模型确定城市快递业务能力综合得分和城市间快递吸引强度,最后通过构建组合预测模型,得到2025年各城市间的快递业务量。结果表明:我国快递市场仍处于快速发展期,需要提前规划物流枢纽建设,做好各种运输方式的运能安排,提升快递效率与综合服务水平。
In order to predict scientifically and eflectively of the express delivery business volume among cities with comprehensive consideration of influencing factors such as city economic development level and transportation distance,the total express delivery business volume of cities is predicted by using cubic exponential smoothing method.Then,the composite score of city express delivery business capacity and the intensity of express delivery attraction among the cities are calculated by using the principal component analysis method and gravity trade model.Through the construction of the combination prediction model,the express delivery business volume among cities in 2025 is obtained.The results show that China express delivery market is still in a period of rapid development,and it is necessary to plan the construction of logistic hubs in advance,make capacity arrangements for various modes of transportation and inprove express delivery efficiency and conprehensive service level.
作者
荣文竽
申晨
RONG Wenyu;SHEN Chen(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China;Nanjing Metro Operation Co.,Ltd,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《大连交通大学学报》
CAS
2023年第2期1-7,共7页
Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University
基金
国家铁路局2020年课题研究计划资助项目(TYFK202030)。
关键词
快递业务量
组合预测
三次指数平滑法
主成分分析法
贸易引力模型
express delivery business volume
combination prediction
cubic exponential moothing method
the principal component analysis method
gravity trade model
