产业事件对猪价波动的影响效应研究

The Effect of Industrial Events on the Fluctuation in Price of Pig

猪价的精准预测是科学制定宏观经济调控政策的前提和决策依据,也是宏观经济政策实践面临的重要问题之一。多年来,猪价的剧烈波动一直困扰着我国生猪产业的发展,其形成机制尚不清楚。根据猪价形成的产业因素,构建猪价模型,分析产业因素对猪价波动的作用效应及其机制,结果表明:产业因素的突发变化会产生级联放大效应,形成产业事件,诱发需求方的负反馈作用,迫使供给侧实行自我调节(生猪出栏量和流动性的调节等),引起猪价的起伏波动,其过程历时2~3年;猪价模型量化了产业事件在猪价波动中的作用,揭示猪周期的实质。控制产业事件发生及其级联效应是稳定我国生猪产业持续、优质和健康发展的重要途径。

The precise forecast of the price of pig is the premise and decision-making basis for the strategy of macroeconomics regulation,and it is also one of the most serious challenges in macroeconomics policy practice.For many years,the sharp fluctuation in pig price has beset the development of China’s pig industry,and its formation mechanism is still unclear.According to the industrial factors that influence pig price,a pig price model is constructed to analyze the effect and mechanism of industrial factors on the fluctuation in pig price.The results show that a sudden change in industrial factors would produce cascade amplification effect,and induce negative feedback from the demand side,which compel the supply side to implement self-regulation(such as the regulation of pig output and mobility),thus lead to about 2 or 3 years’fluctuation.The pig price model has quantified the role of industrial events in pig price fluctuations and revealed the essence of the pig cycle.The results suggest that controlling the occurrence of industrial events and their cascade amplification effects is an important way to stabilize the high-quality development of China’s pig industry.