传统农区宅基地退出潜力评价及分区类型研究

Study on Potential Evaluation and Zoning Types of Homestead Withdrawal in Traditional Rural Areas

以传统农区明光市石坝镇和涧溪镇为例,基于理论潜力、意愿潜力和现实潜力三个方面刻画宅基地退出空间分异特征;运用逐步回归方法分析宅基地退出意愿潜力影响因素;运用空间组合和耦合对研究区进行分区。结果表明:(1)宅基地退出理论潜力在空间上呈现中心集聚特征;意愿潜力和现实潜力的高潜力值呈现点状分布特征;现状宅基地面积是影响宅基地退出意愿潜力的最主要因素。(2)通过三类潜力的组合分析约一半行政村具有分级一致性,而分级组合特征非一致的研究区三类潜力以高水平耦合为主。(3)该研究区农村宅基地退出可划分为五种类型,分别为一般退出区、优先退出区、弹性退出区、意愿限制区和重点退出区,并明确村庄发展目标和方向。

Taking Shiba Town and Jianxi Town in Mingguang City as an example,the paper describes the spatial differentiation characteristics of homestead withdrawal from three aspects:theoretical poten⁃tial,willing potential and practical potential.Secondly,the stepwise regression method is used to ana⁃lyze the factors influencing the potential of homestead withdrawal intention.Finally,spatial combination and coupling were used to partition the study area.The results show that:(1)the theoretical potential of homestead withdrawal presents the characteristics of central agglomeration in space;The high poten⁃tial values of intention potential and reality potential showed a dot distribution.The current homestead area is the main factor affecting the intention potential.(2)Through the combination analysis of the three types of potential,about half of the administrative villages have hierarchical consistency,while the three types of potential in the study area with non-consistent characteristics of hierarchical combi⁃nation are mainly coupled at a high level.(3)The withdrawal of rural homestead in this study area can be divided into five types,which are general withdrawal area,priority withdrawal area,flexible withdrawal area,willing restricted area and key withdrawal area.Accordingly,targeted withdrawal mea⁃sures are proposed and village development goals and directions are defined.