重型货车与二轮车事故致因及其拓扑层级分析

Accident causes and its topological hierarchy analysis for heavy-duty trucks and two-wheelers

为探究重型货车与二轮车事故因素间的相互作用,提出了一种改进的DEMATEL-AISM方法(DEMATEL为决策试验与评价实验室分析法,AISM为对抗解释结构模型法)。结合文献分析法和(中国)国家车辆深度调查体系(NAIS)数据,建立事故致因指标体系。据事故数据特征改进DEMATEL法,定量分析事故因素间的影响程度。基于AISM建立事故因素拓扑层级模型,分析事故系统的拓变性和因素间作用。结果表明:在重型货车与二轮车事故中,超载对其他因素间的影响只有0.150;结果因素是易受影响的关键因素,其中决策失误的中心度为5.25、被影响度为5.18;事故系统为活动系统,且事故发生受到驱动层、直接层和中间层因素的共同影响。

An improved DEMATEL-AISM method combined Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATE)with Adversarial Interpretative Structural Model(AISM)was proposed to explore the relationship between factors influencing accidents involving heavy-duty trucks and two-wheelers.Combined literature analysis method and the National Automobile Accident In-depth Investigation System(NAIS)data(China),an index system of accident causes was established.According to the characteristics of accident data,the DEMATEL method was improved to analyze the influence degrees between accident factors.Based on AISM,the topological hierarchy model of accident factors was established to analyze the topological variability of accident system and the interaction of factors.The results show that the effect of overload on other factors is only 0.150 in the heavy-duty truck and two-wheeler accidents.Among resulting factors,the decision failure is the critical factor easily influenced with a centrality of 5.25 and an influence of 5.18.The accident system is an active system,with the occurrence of accidents being affected by a combination of the driving layer,the direct layer and the intermediate layer factors.