广州市老年人口预期寿命的宏观影响因素研究

Effect of Macro Factors on the Life Expectancy of the Elderly in Guangzhou

目的探索广州市宏观因素与老年人口预期寿命的相关性。方法使用广州市户籍人口死因监测数据,测算2011—2020年广州市11个行政区的老年人口预期寿命。引入时序全局主成分分析提取宏观因素的主要信息,构建混合效应模型估计宏观因素对老年人口预期寿命的作用方向和强度。结果2011年广州市60岁及以上老年人口的预期寿命为24.3岁(95%CI:24.2~24.4岁),2020年为25.4岁(95%CI:25.3~25.5岁),平均年度变化百分比为0.6%(95%CI:0.4%~0.7%)。混合效应模型结果显示,主成分1(经济密度、户籍密度、每千人病床数、每千人执业医师数)和主成分2(净迁移率、居民人均可支配收入)的效应有统计学意义(P<0.05),年份和主成分3(自然增长率、城镇化率)的效应无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论城市宏观因素对老年人口的预期寿命存在健康效应,需要在制定公共政策时予以充分考虑,助力推进健康老龄化。

Objective To explore the correlation between macro factors and the life expectancy of the elderly in Guangzhou.Methods The life expectancy of the elderly in 11 administrative regions of Guangzhou from 2011 to 2020 was calculated by using the cause-of-death surveillance data in Guangzhou.Generalized principal component analysis was used to extract the main information of macro factors,and the mixed effects models were used to estimate the direction and intensity of macro factors on the life expectancy of the elderly.Results The life expectancy of the elderly aged 60 and above in Guangzhou was 24.3 years(95%CI:24.2~24.4 years)in 2011 and 25.4 years(95%CI:25.3~25.5 years)in 2020,and the average annual percentage change was 0.6%(95%CI:0.4%~0.7%).The mixed effects models showed that the effects of principal component 1(economic density,registered population density,number of hospital beds per thousand people,number of medical practitioners per thousand people)and principal component 2(net migration rate,per capita disposal income)were statistically significant(P<0.05),the effects of years and principal component 3(natural growth rate,urbanization rate)were not statistically significant(P>0.05).Conclusion Urban macro factors have the healthy effects on the life expectancy of the elderly,which should be fully considered in the formulation of public policies in order to promote healthy aging.