地市级区域预期寿命测算校正方法研究及结果分析

Research on Data Correction Methods and Analysis Results in the Calculation of Life Expectancy at Prefectural and Municipal Levels

目的探索一种适合地市级区域的预期寿命测算方法,实现在充分保持各地市级区域人口死亡特征的基础上对地市级区域人口预期寿命的稳定估计。方法基于生命表方法,对地市级区域(如河北省各地级市)所在上一级区域(如河北省)的死亡模式、寿命水平进行准确确定,以此为标准来确定修正后死亡概率模式与原始数据之间的关系。通过各区域城镇化率、海拔、山地面积等因素确定修正系数,利用各区域原始数据,获得修正后的年龄别死亡概率。结果2021年河北省各区域的预期寿命比2020年有所提高,省内各区域增加幅度不一。预期寿命最高的区域达到80.69岁,最低为76.10岁,全省平均78.04岁。结论对河北省各区域(含直辖县级市)预期寿命的测算结果显示,所设计的测算方法可以基本消除数据的不稳定和死亡漏报等质量问题,测算结果符合河北省实际。

Objective To construct a set of life expectancy estimation methods suitable for prefecture-level regions,and realize the stable estimation of life expectancy of prefecture-level regions on the basis of fully maintaining the characteristics of population death in each region.Methods Based on the life table method,accurately determine the death mode and life level of the region(Hebei Province)at the upper level of the prefecture-level regions,and determine the relationship between the revised death probability mode and the original data using this as the standard.Determine the correction coefficient through the urbanization rate,sea level,mountain area and other factors of the small regions,and use the original data of the small regions to obtain the revised age-specific death probability.Results The life expectancy of all regions in Hebei Province in 2021 are higher than that in 2020,and the increase range vary from region to region in the province.The region with the highest life expectancy is 80.69 years,the lowest is 76.10 years,and the average in the province is 78.04 years.Conclusion According to the calculation results of all cities in Hebei Province(including county-level cities directly under the central government),it is in line with the reality of Hebei Province and the designed method can basically eliminate the quality problems such as data instability and missing death report.