突发性动物疫情事件对生猪价格的冲击效应分析——以非洲猪瘟事件为例

Analysis on the Impact of Sudden Animal Epidemic Events on Pig Price——take African swine fever

在我国,生猪价格的走向引发着社会各界的持续关注。一方面猪肉是我国居民生活消费的必需品,另一方面猪肉价格的波动对中国居民消费价格指数和物价水平有着尤为显著的影响。近年来,我国突发性动物疫情事件频发,尤其是非洲猪瘟疫情的产生,使得生猪价格异化更为严重,波动更加频繁。文章以2015年1月-2018年7月我国生猪月平均价格为建模基础,借助ARIMA时间序列模型深入剖析突发性动物疫情事件对生猪市场价格的冲击作用,并为其提供科学的量化结果。研究显示:突发性动物疫情事件一般是通过降低生产者饲养能力与打击消费者购买信心等渠道影响供需,进而对生猪价格产生强烈冲击,并且这种冲击效应存在时滞性与阶段性特征。

In China,the trend of pig price arouses continuous attention of all walks of life.On the one hand,pork is a daily necessity of Chinese residents.On the other hand,the fluctuation of pork price has a particularly significant effect on Chinese consumer price index and price level.In recent years,China's sudden animal epidemic events occur frequently,especially the African swine fever makes the pig price differing greatly and fluctuating more frequently.Based on the monthly average price of pig in China from January 2015 to July 2018,this paper thoroughly analyzes the impact of sudden animal epidemic events on pig market price with the help of ARIMA time series model,and provides scientific quantitative results for it.The research showed that the sudden animal epidemic mainly affected the supply and demand by attacking the supply capacity of producers and the purchase confidence of consumers,which has a strong impact on the pig price,and the impact effect delays in time and differs at stages.