基于ABM的公共政策仿真研究进展与方法论启示

The Status Quo and Methodological Enlightenment of Simulation Research on Public Policies Using Agent-Based Modeling

本文围绕基于主体的建模方法(Agent-Based Modeling,ABM)在公共政策研究中的应用,从跨学科视角探讨数智时代深化与变革公共政策研究的新使命。通过聚焦于ABM对于公共政策研究的方法(论)特色及优势,本文对应用ABM开展公共政策研究的一些代表性文献进行较为系统地梳理,力图勾勒这一领域的发展概貌和前沿动态;在此基础上,归纳总结应用ABM开展公共政策研究的时代机遇及所面临的困难和挑战,并且以公共政策研究的核心问题及其内在逻辑联系作为分析的起点,提出构建“计算+ABM”的新方法体系框架。本文的研究结果将有助于在一定程度上弥补当前公共政策抽象理论与鲜活现实之间的脱节现象,推动我国公共政策和公共管理决策的科学化、合理化、透明化进程,因此对于新时代背景下全方位提升社会公共治理能力、促进社会持续健康发展具有重要理论贡献和实践应用价值。

This paper focus on the topic of using agent-based modeling(ABM)in public policies research,and discusses the new propositions of deepening and transforming public policy research during the current era of digital intelligence from an interdisciplinary perspective.By focusing on the methodological features,and particularly,strengths of ABM,this study review the representative literature of contemporary ABM in public policy research to display systematically the update advances in the field.So it summarize the potential opportunities and challenges of using ABM in public policies studies.This paper further consider the core issues and internal logical connections of public policy research as the starting point and put forward a systematic framework of the"computing+ABM"methodology for the field of public policies.The results would be very helpful to make up to a certain extent for the disconnect between the current abstract theory of public policy and the vivid reality,and then to promote the scientific,rational and transparent process of our country's public policy and public management decision-making.Therefore they not only theoretically contribute to but also are of practical significances for increasing the ability of social public governance,and promoting the sustainable and healthy development of our society in the new era.