广东省新型城镇化高质量发展水平演变及其影响因素

High-quality Development of New Urbanization in Guangdong Province:Spatio-temporal Evolution,Influencing Factors

推动新型城镇化高质量发展是实现中国式现代化的必由之路。文章构建“经济发展、基础设施、城乡统筹、绿色低碳、创新发展”五维度的新型城镇化高质量发展评价指标体系,运用组合赋权法、时序加权平均算子法及空间统计分析法,对2009—2020年广东省新型城镇化高质量发展水平展开分析。结果表明:广东省新型城镇化高质量发展水平总体不高,各维度分指数的变化态势不尽相同,“绿色低碳”对新型城镇化高质量发展的贡献最大,“创新发展”的贡献最小;珠三角地区综合发展水平较高、持续发展能力强,粤西和粤北次之,粤东最弱;城市空间关联模式以同质集聚为主,高—高集聚型城市分布在珠三角,低—低集聚型城市分布在粤东西北;经济基础、技术创新、政府引导、产业结构和对外贸易是广东省新型城镇化高质量发展的核心影响因素。最后,从完善区域协调发展体制机制、制定差异化发展规划和优化实施路径三方面提出政策建议。

Promoting high-quality development of new urbanization is the only way to realize the Chinese modernization.This paper constructs the evaluation index system of high-quality development of new urbanization from five aspects of economic development,infrastructure,urban-rural coordination,green low-carbon and innovative development,and analyzes the high-quality development level of new urbanization in Guangdong Province from 2009 to 2020 by using the combination weighting method,time-ordered weighted average operator method and spatial statistical analysis method.The results show that:1)The level of high-quality development of new urbanization in Guangdong Province is not high,and the change trend of five aspects is different.The green and low-carbon has the largest contribution to the high-quality development of new urbanization,and the innovative development has the smallest contribution.2)It has a high level of comprehensive development and strong capacity for sustainable development in the Pearl River Delta region,followed by the west and north of Guangdong Province,it is the weakest in the east of Guangdong Province.3)The urban spatial association pattern is mainly homogeneous agglomeration.High-high spatial agglomeration cities are distributed in the Pearl River Delta,and low-low spatial agglomeration cities are in the rest of Guangdong.4)Economic foundation,technological innovation,government guidance,industrial structure and foreign trade are the core influencing factors for the high-quality development of new urbanization in Guangdong Province.Finally,policy suggestions are put forward from three aspects:improving the system and mechanism of regional coordinated development,formulating differentiated development plans and optimizing the implementation path.