自然灾害-电力系统-碳排放变化的贝叶斯网络建模与估计

Bayesian Network Modeling and Estimation of Natural Disaster-Power System-Carbon Emission Change

电力系统是碳排放的主要来源之一,碳排放的积累所形成的温室效应会导致极端天气和自然灾害,而自然灾害又会影响水电、光伏、风电等可再生低碳资源以及输配电网络的减碳功效。因此,揭示自然灾害链与新型电力系统减碳功效之间的机理十分重要。在分析自然灾害对电力系统碳排放影响的基础上,建立了“自然灾害-电力系统-碳排放变化”的贝叶斯网络,提出了一种考虑多种灾害相互作用下评估电力系统碳排放变化的方法,并以“暴雨-滑坡-洪水”灾害链案例展示了其可行性。

Power system is one of the main sources of carbon emissions,and the greenhouse effect formed by the accumulation of carbon emissions will lead to extreme weather and natural disasters,which in turn will affect the renewable low-carbon resources such as hydropower,photovoltaic,wind power,and carbon reduction efficiency of transmission and distribution networks.Therefore,it is important to reveal the mechanism between the natural disaster chain and the carbon reduction efficiency of new power systems.Based on the analysis of the impact of natural disasters on power system carbon emission,this paper establishes the Bayesian network of“natural disaster-power system-carbon emission change”,and proposes an evaluation model for carbon emission changes of power systems considering the interaction among various disasters.And the feasibility of the proposed method is verified by a case of a“rainstorm-landslide-flood”disaster chain.