辽宁地区16座水库水质变化趋势分析与风险研究

Analysis and Risk of Water Quality Change Trends in 16 Reservoirs in Liaoning Province

对辽宁省水库近20年的监测数据进行整理、分析,发现全省监测的水库中水质总体保持稳定,但水库营养状态指数有不同程度上升,得出了结论:辽宁地区16座水库未来存在富营养化风险。采用相关性分析和多元线性回归分析了水库各项监测数据,结果表明:入库河流总氮浓度是对库区水质影响较大的因素,是造成水库总氮浓度上升的主要原因之一。为此,提出了未来应以水库上游及周边非点源为主要综合防治对象,将入库河流总氮、总磷作为重要控制指标,以实现总氮、总磷负荷削减,减轻入库氮磷负荷压力。

After sorting out and analyzing the monitoring data of the reservoirs in Liaoning Province in the past 20 years,it is found that the water quality of the reservoirs monitored in the province is generally stable,but the nutrient state index of the reservoirs has risen to varying degrees.It is concluded that 16 reservoirs in Liaoning Province are at risk of eutrophication in the future.Through correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis of various monitoring data of the reservoir,it is concluded that the increase of total nitrogen concentration in the inflow river is a major factor that has a greater impact on the water quality of the reservoir area,which is one of the main reasons for the increase of total nitrogen concentration in the reservoir.In the future,the non-point sources at the upstream of the reservoir and around the reservoir should be taken as the main object of comprehensive prevention and control,and the total nitrogen and phosphorus in the inflow river should be taken as important control indicators to reduce the total nitrogen and phosphorus load and reduce the pressure on the nitrogen and phosphorus load in the reservoir.