野象北移事件舆情演化及其影响机制

Spatiotemporal Evolution and the Influence Mechanism of Public Opinion on the Occurrence of Northward Migration of Wild Elephants

网络舆情分析在突发事件科学管理及应急响应中作用显著。本文以2021年发生的我国首例野象大跨度北移事件为案例,采用事件抽取和扩展BosonNLP的情感分析方法,研究新闻及社交媒体关于野象北移的情感关切响应及事件级联效应,并用地理探测器等空间统计分析方法揭示其影响机制,进而探讨此类突发事件与其他舆情的传播及演化差异。结果表明:①野象北移舆情起始期较长而爆发期较短,且其信息扩散受空间距离衰减规律的影响较小,而主要取决于地区互联网资源供给及传播媒介分布情况,有别于公共卫生、自然灾害等跨区域重大突发事件舆情演进规律;②北移象群逼近人口密集的城区时易引爆舆情;期间,新闻媒体全面关注野象迁移动态且积极意向明显,成为推动公众舆情趋向正面社会建构的重要话语力量;③微博舆情情感在全国及省域尺度均存在显著空间集聚性;事源地云南及其邻域为低-低集聚型情感冷区,国内媒体及微博用户主要分布地(北京、山东、江苏等)为高-高集聚型情感热区;突发事件主要影响区(昆明和玉溪)亦为高-高集聚型情感热区,而我国野象传统分布区(普洱和西双版纳)却为情感冷区;决策部门及新闻媒体应差异化响应舆情情感冷热区的民众关切并精准引导当地舆论。该研究对丰富大数据时代下舆情地理学的分析方法,促进生物多样性保护与社会和谐发展等具有重要意义。

The analysis of network public opinion plays a significant role in the scientific management and timely response of emergencies.In this paper,we established a process of spatiotemporal evolution for the structured analysis of dynamics of public opinion on emergencies,taking the first case of long-range wild elephants'northward migration in China in 2021 as a case study.We adopted a sentiment analysis method combining key sub-event extraction and extended BosonNLP to study the emotional concern response and cascade effect of the wild elephants'northward migration event reported in news and social media.A geodetector spatial statistical analysis method was used to reveal the influence mechanism,and then to explore the differences in the dissemination and evolution of such emergencies and the related public opinions.The results showed that:(1)public opinion on the northward migration of wild elephants exhibited a long starting period but a short outbreaking period,and the information diffusion was less influenced by the decay law of spatial distance,but mainly depended on the regional distribution of Internet resource supply and communication media,which differed from the evolution law of public opinions on major cross-region emergencies such as public health and natural disasters;(2)public opinion was prone to be triggered when the northward moving elephant herd approached the densely populated urban areas,where the news media paid full attention to the wild elephant migration dynamics with obviously positive attitudes and became an important force to promote a construction of positive social public opinion;(3)a significant spatial clustering of Weibo sentiment was observed at the nation-wide and province-wide scales.At the national scale,Yunnan,where the event occurred,and its neighbouring provinces were identified as the low-low clustering emotional cold areas,while some concentrated areas with domestic media and Weibo users such as Beijing,Shandong,and Jiangsu were identified as the high-high clustering emotional hot areas;at the provincial scale,Kunming and its neighbouring prefectures/cities were also identified as the high-high clustering hot areas,whereas the major distribution areas of China's wild elephants such as Xishuangbanna and Pu'er were identified as the hot emotional areas.Therefore,the government departments and news media should exhibit differentiated responses to public concerns in the hot and cold emotional zones and then precisely guide local public opinion.These findings are important for enriching the methods and framework of public opinion geography in the era of big data,and promoting biodiversity conservation to achieve a harmonious society.