“一带一路”沿线国家金融发展空间溢出效应研究

Study on Spatial Spillover Effect of Financial Development in Countries along the Belt and Road

“一带一路”倡议不仅促进中国发展,而且推动世界各国互联互通,改变现有贸易格局,对世界经济发展发挥着重要作用。本文以2010-2020年“一带一路”沿线49个国家面板数据作为样本,通过空间杜宾模型及混合地理加权模型回归检验“一带一路”沿线国家之间金融发展空间溢出效应的依赖性和异质性,旨在度量沿线国家金融发展程度,探究沿线国家金融发展溢出效应的共性与个性。研究发现:沿线样本国家金融发展程度普遍偏低,各国之间的金融发展存在显著的空间正相关性,金融发展程度在依赖性和异质性上均表现为正向溢出效应,即沿线样本国家金融水平提高可以显著促进相邻沿线国家金融发展。在依赖性上,回归结果显示提升高等教育毛入学率对本国金融发展存在促进作用,通货膨胀率和失业率上升则会抑制沿线国家金融发展;在异质性上,溢出效应具有明显的区位分布特征,随着中国与沿线样本国家之间的地理距离逐渐缩小,沿线样本国家的金融发展溢出效应逐渐增强。

The Belt and Road Initiative not only promotes China's development,but also promotes the connectivity between Asia,Europe and Africa,changes the existing trade pattern,and plays an important role in world economic development.This paper takes the panel data of 49 countries along the Belt and Road from 2010 to 2020 as samples to test the dependence and heterogeneity of the spatial spillover effect of financial development among countries along the Belt and Road through the spatial Dubin model and the mixed geographical weighted model regression,aiming at measuring the financial development level of countries along the Belt and Road.Explore the commonness and individuality of financial spillover effects in countries along the Belt and Road.The results show that the financial development degree of sample countries along the Belt and Road is generally low,and there is a significant spatial positive correlation between the financial development degree of countries,and the degree of financial development shows a positive spillover effect in both dependence and heterogeneity,that is,the improvement of the financial level of sample countries along the Belt and Road can significantly promote the financial development of neighboring countries along the belt and Road.In terms of dependency,the regression results show that increasing the gross enrollment rate of higher education has a positive effect on domestic financial development,while the rise of inflation rate and unemployment rate will inhibit the financial development of countries along the Belt and Road.In terms of heterogeneity,the spillover effect has obvious geographical distribution characteristics.As the geographical distance between China and sample countries along the Belt and Road gradually shrinks,the spillover effect of financial development in sample countries along the belt and Road gradually increases.