人工智能发展与出口持续时间:稳出口效应存在吗?

Artificial Inteligence Development and Export Duration:Does Export Stabilization Effect Exist?

随着人工智能技术的突破和应用,中国出口方被赋予了新的出口竞争优势,这对出口发展的持续性产生了深刻影响。基于此,文章结合国际机器人联合会的机器人数据和同期中国出口产品贸易数据,系统分析了人工智能发展对出口产品持续时间的客观作用。研究表明,人工智能发展有效提高了出口方出口产品的持续时间,且该过程在出口方的智能化倾向和贸易信息差异上存在着异质性作用。机制检验发现,生产率提升效应和信息成本削减效应是人工智能促进出口产品持续时间提升的重要渠道。此外,在考虑核心指标稳健性、出口轮次统计误差、计量模型设定等多方面稳健性检验,并利用双重差分法和工具变量回归的方式解决内生性问题后,结果依然稳健。文章认为,把握“智能热”的时代发展契机,推动人工智能在出口贸易领域的应用发展,是实现中国出口贸易保稳提质目标的纲领所在。

With the breakthrough and application of artificial intelligence technology,Chinese exporters have been given new trade competitive advantages,which has had a profound impact on the sustainability of export development.Based on this,this paper systematically analyzes the objective effect of artificial intelligence development on the duration of export products by combining the robot data of the International Federation of Robotics and the trade data of Chinese export products during the same period.Research shows that the development of artificial intelligence has effectively improved the duration of exporters'export products,and this process has a heterogeneous effect on the differences of exporters'intelligence tendency and trade information.The mechanism test finds that the productivity improvement effect and the information cost reduction effect are important channels for artificial intelligence to increase the duration of export products.In addition,after considering the robustness of core indicators,the statistical error of export rounds,the setting of measurement models,etc.,and using the double difference method and instrumental variable regression to solve the endogeneity problem,the export duration improvement effect generated by the development of artificial intelligence still exists.Therefore,grasping the development opportunity of the era of"intelligence fever"and promoting the application and development of artificial intelligence in the field of export trade are the guidelines for realizing the goals of stability and improvement of Chinese export trade.