多参数人口模型的建立及其在精神活性物质评估中的应用

Establishment of multi-parameter population model and its application in assessment of psychoactive substances

精神活性物质对人类中枢神经系统具有强烈兴奋或抑制作用,其滥用已经成为全球广泛关注的社会问题.我国传统精神活性物质以甲基苯丙胺和海洛因为主,两者滥用量及流行率的准确评估对控制和监管滥用情况具有重大意义.本文对2019年和2020年我国西北部某城市主城区及县(市、区)的8个污水处理厂样品进行检测,使用层次分析法对设计容量法、水质参数法、生物标志物法以及人均用水量法的权重系数进行赋值,建立了多参数人口模型,并用于该市甲基苯丙胺及海洛因人均滥用量和流行率的评估.结果显示,所有样品均检出甲基苯丙胺和吗啡,其中2019年甲基苯丙胺和海洛因人均滥用量分别为(112.60±25.20)μg·d^(−1)和(31.70±10.93)μg·d^(−1),流行率分别为(0.49±0.17)%和(0.43±0.10)‰;2020年甲基苯丙胺和海洛因的人均滥用量分别为(92.81±28.41)μg·d^(−1)和(25.65±11.42)μg·d^(−1),流行率分别为(0.34±0.11)%和(0.41±0.18)‰.两种精神活性物质的人均滥用量及流行率整体都有所减小,疫情防控措施对精神活性物质的滥用产生了遏制作用,同时不同地区精神活性物质滥用量与经济发展程度有关.

Psychoactive substances have strong excitement or inhibition on human central nervous system.Their abuse has become a social problem of global concern.Methamphetamine and heroin are the main traditional psychoactive substances in China.Accurate assessment of their abuse and prevalence rate is of great significance to control and regulate abuse.In this paper,the samples of eight sewage treatment plants in the main urban areas and counties(cities and districts)of a city in northwest China in 2019 and 2020 were tested.The weight coefficients of design capacity method,water quality parameter method,biomarker method and per capita water consumption method were assigned by analytic hierarchy process.Then a multi-parameter population model was established to evaluate the per capita abuse and prevalence of methamphetamine and heroin in the city.The results showed that methamphetamine and morphine were detected in all samples.In 2019,the per capita abuse of methamphetamine and heroin was(112.60±25.20)μg·d^(−1) and(31.70±10.93)μg·d^(−1),respectively,and the prevalence rates were(0.49±0.17)%and(0.43±0.10)‰,respectively.The per capita abuse of methamphetamine and heroin in 2020 was(92.81±28.41)μg·d^(−1) and(25.65±11.42)μg·d^(−1),respectively,and the prevalence rates were(0.34±0.11)%and(0.41±0.18)‰respectively.The per capita abuse and prevalence of the two psychoactive substances decreased,and the epidemic prevention and control measures had a restraining effect on the abuse of psychoactive substances.At the same time,the abuse of psychoactive substances in different regions was related to the degree of economic development.