经济政策不确定性与区域一体化发展——来自长三角区域的证据

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Regional Integration Development——Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta Region

长三角地区作为中国最具创新活力和生产动力的城市群,其区域一体化发展水平深刻影响和塑造着地区经济增长以及我国其他地区合作的经验参考。本文从经济政策不确定性视角对其区域一体化发展进行分析。研究表明,2009—2020年,长三角区域的市场分割程度有显著下降趋势,但省际竞争所带来的“省界地区高程度市场分割”现象仍较为突出。经济政策不确定性的上升会导致区域内市场分割程度加剧,且随着市场分割程度提高,其边际影响越大。异质性分析发现,江苏省市场一体化建设在应对经济政策不确定性风险上具有较为成熟的能力,安徽省亟待改善。另外,近十年经济政策不确定对长三角区域一体化建设的边际负影响得到显著减弱,一体化建设在应对不确定性风险方面有显著能力改善。文章结论在系列稳健性检验和工具变量处理后依然成立,并将对各地区实现经济政策连续性与区域一体化的有效结合提供边际贡献。

The Yangtze River Delta region is known for its innovation and productivity in China,and the level of regional integration development has a significant impact on regional economic growth and it serves as an example of cooperation for other areas of China.This paper analyses the regional integration development through the lens of economic policy uncertainty.The study indicates that the level of market segmentation in the region has decreased notably between 2009 and 2020,but remains high in the inter-provincial region.The growth in economic policy uncertainty has led to an increase in market segmentation,with a greater impact as market segmentation rises.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that Jiangsu province is more capable of establishing market integration to deal with economic policy uncertainty,whereas Anhui province needs improvement.Additionally,in the last decade,the negative effect of economic policy uncertainty on regional integration construction in the Yangtze River Delta has declined significantly,and the construction has improved its ability to cope with uncertain risks.The article's results hold up after several robust tests and instrumental variable treatments and provide valuable insights for regions to seek to balance economic policy continuity and regional integration effectively.